Welcome to another edition of the NBC News Politics newsletter, your source for the latest insights and developments from across the political landscape.
In this issue, we explore the significant victories achieved by the Democratic Party in the recent midterm elections, as well as the implications for the upcoming presidential race.
Significant Democratic Gains in House Elections
Analysis by Scott Bland
In the recent electoral contests, Democrats have made notable strides, capturing an estimated 259 seats in the House of Representatives, marking a substantial national impact. This performance places Democrats on track for the second-highest popular vote margin in the last half-century.
The upcoming results will likely reveal the largest midterm margin achieved by a single party since 1974, a period marked by public discontent toward the Republican Party following Watergate.
With more votes yet to be counted—especially in Democratic-leaning California—Democratic candidates have garnered approximately 55.3% of the national vote, compared to the Republican share of 43.3%. This indicates a decisive 12-point advantage, outperforming previous Democratic wave elections in 2008 and 2018, as well as Republican successes in 1994 and 2010.
In battleground districts identified by NBC News, a considerable shift toward Democrats was noted. The average margin in these competitive areas swung nearly 17 percentage points in favor of Democratic candidates compared to the 2024 presidential race results, demonstrating a significant pivot in voter preferences.
One of the standout regions was South Texas, where there was notable Democratic advancement among Latino voters, contributing to substantial congressional victories.
The 2028 Presidential Race: Emerging Leaders
By Alexandra Marquez
While the 2026 midterm elections are still being finalized, attention is already turning toward the 2028 presidential race. The recent Democratic victories have ushered in a new cohort of political influencers in several states that will play a critical role in shaping the party’s primary calendar in two years.
Five of the six states that will lead the Democratic presidential primaries have elected new Democratic governors or senators. Their endorsements could significantly impact candidates and serve as vital signals for voters, particularly in states that have not favored Democrats in decades. A prime example is South Carolina, where Annie Andrews made history as the first Democrat to be elected to the Senate since 1998.
In August, the Democratic National Committee designated South Carolina as the first state on the 2028 presidential primary calendar. Historically, this state has wielded considerable influence in primaries, as evidenced by Rep. James Clyburn’s endorsement in 2020, which was instrumental in propelling President Biden’s campaign.
Now, Andrews may emerge as a key player alongside Clyburn, providing a substantial voice for Democratic constituents as they consider future presidential nominations.
“I mentioned it to Annie last night. I said, ‘You know, you’re going to be extremely popular with all the 2028 folks,’” remarked Jamie Harrison, former chair of the Democratic National Committee and the South Carolina Democratic Party. “She just started laughing. But she will be.”
Additional Insights
🗞️ Today’s Other Headlines
- Tick tock: A comprehensive analysis of the 2026 midterms by Jonathan Allen and team highlights the strategic missteps that led to Democrats regaining control.
- Prep work: The White House was already gearing up for investigations promised by Democratic lawmakers into the previous administration’s conduct.
- Party dynamics: Democrat Scott Colom expressed concern over party strategies in Mississippi as his Senate race remains too close to call.
- Notable wins: Texas Democrats achieved gains, taking the state attorney general’s office from Republican control.
- Community opposition: Voters across the nation challenged data center expansion, electing officials who favor stricter regulations.
- Judicial legacy: With Democrats controlling the Senate, the influence of Trump’s judicial appointments is likely to be curbed.
- Department changes: Harmeet Dhillon, who led significant reforms within the Justice Department, has resigned.
- Speculatory shifts: Trump is rumored to be considering replacing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
- State updates: California’s Governor Gavin Newsom commuted all death sentences statewide.
That’s all for today from the Politics Desk. This newsletter was prepared by Adam Wollner.
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