On October 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant inflow, garnering $137.3 million. This marked the third consecutive day of investment influxes, occurring alongside the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates at 4%. Out of the voting officials, two advocated for a quarter-point increase. Despite this positive momentum for ETFs, Bitcoin’s price fluctuations proved volatile; it surged to $81,788 post-announcement but subsequently dipped to $79,710, with declines in semiconductor stocks adversely affecting the cryptocurrency market.
At present, Bitcoin trades at $79,899, reflecting a 1.2% decrease over the past 24 hours. October 2026 is projected to close with a 4.4% decline for Bitcoin, continuing the trend of negative performance seen in the prior year. For traders keeping an eye on upcoming Bitcoin developments, November appears busy, featuring midterm elections, new employment figures, inflation data, and an anticipated interest rate hike in December, currently gauged at a 79% probability by the market.
What insights can we derive from the recent ETF flows, the Federal Reserve’s decisions, and upcoming events in November?
The Fed is solid.
The verdict was 10-2.
Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted in favor of the increase.
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 28, 2026
Bitcoin ETFs: Weekly Performance
In total, Bitcoin ETFs accumulated approximately $424 million over three trading days, predominantly driven by BlackRock. Here’s a breakdown:
- October 26: $110.3 million inflow into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
- October 27: $176 million total inflow, with no losses recorded across 12 funds.
- October 28: $137.3 million inflow, with IBIT credited with $136 million and Bitwise’s BITB receiving $1.3 million.
This recent uptick comes after a difficult patch for these funds. On October 22, both IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC suffered a combined outflow of $635.6 million—the most substantial drop since June. By the start of this week, October’s figures reflected a net loss of about $202 million, which shifted positively following the recent inflows.
Federal Reserve’s Stance
The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to hold interest rates steady, with the statement highlighting that the economy is “expanding at a strong pace,” with inflation remaining an ongoing concern. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were the only dissenting votes favoring a rate increase. Chairman Kevin Warsh refrained from providing insights on potential December actions, stating, “I don’t believe in forward guidance unless there’s an emergency or a crisis.” This cautious approach led to interpretations among traders that a tightening stance may be on the horizon. In the pre-meeting market, 77% of participants were pricing in a likelihood of a quarter-point increase in December.
Initially, Bitcoin reacted with stability, trading at $80,860 shortly after the Fed’s announcement. It briefly increased by 1.1% before succumbing to external pressures, particularly linked to disappointing performance from tech stocks following Samsung’s semiconductor earnings. Consequently, Bitcoin plummeted to $79,710 by the next day, accompanied by the liquidation of over $350 million in leveraged crypto bets.
Outlook for Bitcoin in November
Numerous key economic indicators and events are set to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in November:
- October 29: Release of September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data and Q3 GDP figures.
- October 30: Expiration of Deribit monthly options impacting approximately 135,700 BTC and $10.8 billion in open contracts.
- November 3: Midterm elections in the U.S.
- November 6: Employment statistics for October.
- November 10: Consumer Prices for October release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- December 9: Next Federal Reserve decision regarding interest rates.
Historically, November is perceived as a favorable month for Bitcoin, particularly influenced by performance in 2020 and 2024, both of which witnessed significant gains immediately following presidential elections. However, in years such as 2018 and 2022, declines of 36.6% and 16.2% were recorded, respectively.
Bitcoin’s November performance has varied significantly over the years. Source: Binance
While option traders appear to be staying cautious—indicated by Deribit’s DVOL index maintaining a range around 36.5—Bitcoin’s price remains under critical observation. Currently trading at $79,899, it has crossed its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $80,789 multiple times this past week, with the lower boundary resting at $79,221, marking its established support level.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Analysis shows Bitcoin is navigating through a critical price zone. It trades close to its 50-day EMA while having hit a recent low of $79,221. The movement suggests a potential need for sustained trading above this mark:
- Resistance Level: $84,898 (the high from October 21).
- Support Level: $79,221 (recent low), with secondary support at $76,264-$76,476 (September’s low and recent 200-day EMA).
BTCUSDT Chart 1D TradingView
In summary, while Bitcoin shows signs of ETF interest gaining traction once more, uncertainty lingers as external factors like tech stock performance and Federal Reserve policy influence market dynamics. Upcoming economic data releases will play a pivotal role in shaping the market trajectory as November unfolds.
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing fair and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information, but it should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Market conditions can shift rapidly, and we advise you to verify this information independently and consult a financial professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanisms. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to write evidence-based reports and detailed guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council and is dedicated to providing “information acquisition” that breaks through the market hype, focusing on real-world blockchain utility.
