Willy Wu, an on-chain analyst, recently shared a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s potential price trajectories by simulating 10,000 price paths on October 26. His model uses a random walk approach based on Bitcoin’s historical performance, particularly focusing on cyclical return contractions to predict possible future highs and lows. Traders in the Bitcoin news community noted that the median simulation predicts a peak price of around $413,000 in December 2028.
Despite the optimistic projections from the simulation, Wu maintains a more cautious stance. He estimates that the upper range for Bitcoin’s price could fall between $241,000 and $413,000 by 2028, positioning this forecast between the 28th and 50th percentiles of the model outcomes. He emphasizes, “This is a simulation, not my prediction.”
10,000 possible future paths
Random walk simulation trained on BTC considering power-law degradation of returns.
She is optimistic and thinks 28th to 50th percentile is reasonable.
So the top in 2028 will be between $241k and $413k
This is a simulation and not my prediction. pic.twitter.com/RpjaRKkSQJ
— Willy Wu (@willywoo) October 26, 2026
Insights from Willy Wu’s Price Simulation
The model illustrates Bitcoin’s expected market behavior, indicating a peak in late 2028 or early 2029, followed by a bear market low around April 2030, and a subsequent peak projected for February 2033.
Key Projections
| Percentile | 2028 Peak | 2030 Low | 2033 Peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90th Percentile | $1.44 Million (March 2029) | $1 million | $5.8 million |
| Median | $413,000 (December 2028) | $234,000 | $1.03 Million |
| 29th Percentile | $241,000 (December 2028) | $126,000 | $477,000 |
| 10th Percentile | $116,000 (December 2028) | $51,900 | $176,000 |
The spread of results from the simulation indicates that, by February 2033, the price at the 90th percentile could be 33 times greater than that at the 10th percentile. The lowest projected price for 2033 still remains at $120,000, although the predicted low for 2030 could fall as low as $51,900, reflecting a significant decrease from today’s value.
Understanding “Power-Law Degradation of Returns”
This concept refers to the observation that as Bitcoin matures, each subsequent market cycle produces returns that are smaller than those of prior cycles. Historical data supports this trend—Bitcoin’s surge from around $1,150 in 2013 to about $20,000 in late 2017 signified a 17-fold increase, while a rise to $69,000 in 2021 represented only a 3.5-fold increase, and the peak of approximately $126,080 in October 2025 marked just a 1.8-fold increase.
Wu’s model applies this decay in returns over time, with the “c=0.45” figure indicating the rate of this decline. The term “phase conditional” in his analysis signifies that each simulation day aligns with Bitcoin’s position within its market cycle, whether experiencing a rally, a high, or a bear market. This structured approach allows the simulation to maintain a consistent four-year rhythm.
Implications of the Model’s Results
The median price forecast of $413,000 represents a significant increase from the 2025 peak, yet it is still 3.3 times higher. Wu’s lower bound of $241,000 would indicate a 1.9 times increase from a projected high in 2028, aligning it closely with previous cycles’ percentage increases.
Limitations of the Simulation
While the simulation offers a plethora of insights, its foundation rests on historical data that may not fully capture future market dynamics. Wu emphasizes the assumptions inherent in the random walk model, which does not account for various external factors that may influence Bitcoin’s price movements:
- New Investors: With U.S. spot ETFs accumulating upwards of $102.8 billion in Bitcoin, these large-scale investments were absent in previous cycles.
- Interest Rates and Liquidity: Recent federal interest rate hikes may impact market behaviors, diverging from past cycles’ performance.
- Supply Constraints: As Bitcoin nears its maximum supply of 21 million coins, each halving reduces the influx of new coins into the market.
- Market Changes: Changing regulations, competitive pressures, and technological advancements could influence future price behaviors.
In essence, Wu’s simulation serves as a valuable map delineating possible price trajectories while underscoring the uncertainty and variability inherent in financial markets.
Current Bitcoin Market Overview
As it stands, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $79,770, reflecting a 2.1% decrease over the week and 36.7% below its October 2025 peak. Currently, Bitcoin struggles to maintain levels above the 50-day EMA of $80,765, having supported the price around $79,221 earlier this week.
Market Levels to Monitor
- Resistance Level: $81,480 is crucial, as recent rallies have stalled here.
- Support Level: Close attention should be paid to maintaining support at $79,221, with the 200-day EMA resting below at $76,382.
Conclusion
For Bitcoin to reach the lower estimate of Wu’s simulation by 2028, it would require a significant tripling of its current price. The immediate focus for traders will likely be on how the market reacts ahead of key decisions, including those from the Federal Reserve and upcoming corporate earnings reports.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanisms. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to write evidence-based reports and detailed guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council and is dedicated to providing “information acquisition” that breaks through the market hype and discovers the utility of blockchain in the real world.
