The benefits — and perils — of expanding the map: From the Politics Desk

As the midterm elections draw near, high-stakes Senate races are heating up across the United States, reflecting shifting dynamics and increased spending from both parties. Today’s analysis focuses on an unexpected contest in Mississippi and explores how potential presidential candidates are simultaneously preparing for future elections.

Unexpected Investment in Mississippi

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

In a surprising move, the Democratic Senate super PAC recently made a significant investment of $1.3 million in Mississippi, a state with a historically strong Republican presence. The Republicans quickly responded with a $1.4 million advertising blitz to protect their ground, targeting Democratic challenger Scott Colom, a Black lawyer and prosecutor.

Mississippi hasn’t seen a Democratic senator since a segregationist took office in 1982, and only two years ago, the state’s electoral margins favored Republicans by over 20 points at both presidential and Senate levels. Still, the Democrats’ late-stage engagement in Mississippi has forced Republicans to allocate resources to defend territory that was previously considered secure.

This maneuver ties into a broader struggle for Republicans, who are currently focused on contested states like Iowa, Texas, and Ohio—where Trump won by margins of 10-20 points. The added pressure of Mississippi presents an unwelcome distraction.

For Democrats, this strategy carries potential risks. By pushing into traditionally Republican strongholds, expectations for Senate flips may rise dramatically, creating pressure within the party. If they succeed in defending their seats while flipping only a few, they could fall short of a Senate majority. This outcome could lead to perceptions of failure, despite a historical performance that might otherwise be deemed successful.

Some Democrats are making efforts to moderate expectations. As one strategist noted, “Donald Trump won some of these states by 20 points, and a week out, they’re close. This tells you how far out of touch Republicans are with the electorate.” However, they emphasize that every vote will be critical in these tight races.

On the other side, Republicans appear to embrace the narrative of underdogs amidst growing Democratic energy, with one strategist commenting that if Democrats fail amid high expectations, the blame for such a scenario rests squarely on their campaign hype.

Building Momentum for 2028: The Shadow Primary

By Megan Brand

While South Carolina may not be a key battleground this election cycle, it has become a focal point for potential Democratic presidential candidates. Many prominent politicians are visiting the state as part of early campaigning efforts, signaling the political activity brewing ahead of the 2028 election cycle.

Although no significant declarations for presidential runs have been made, the travels of these figures hint at a burgeoning shadow primary. As Republican strategist Ron Bonjean explained, the midterm climate serves as an excellent platform for candidates to begin honing their campaign strategies in preparation for the future.

Despite the enthusiasm surrounding these visits, many potential candidates are opting not to campaign alongside Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews due to the state’s Republican leanings. Jesse Lehrich, a Democratic strategist, pointed out that it would be “actively unhelpful” for many Democrats to associate too closely with elections in a red state.

Aides to several possible contenders for the 2028 nomination have indicated that the goal is to engage with voters in areas typically overlooked by candidates, enhancing voter mobilization efforts in strategic locations.

This comprehensive overview sheds light on the evolving political landscape as we approach Election Day. Expect heightened engagement and strategic maneuvering as candidates and their respective parties navigate the challenges ahead.

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