The October jobs report is out Friday. Here’s everything to expect

As the U.S. enters October 2026, experts predict minimal job growth, with employers adopting a cautious stance regarding hiring. This trend comes amid a contracting labor force and rising long-term unemployment challenges.

Economists forecast an increase of only 59,000 nonfarm payrolls for October, a modest improvement compared to September’s 29,000. This prediction reflects an ongoing pattern of subdued employment growth.

Despite these expectations, the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at a low 4.2%. This consistency indicates that a shrinking labor force lessens the necessity for significant job additions to maintain unemployment levels.

“Long-term, we won’t require as many jobs to support stable employment due to the diminishing workforce,” commented Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter. “With an aging population heading into retirement and decades of low birth rates resulting in fewer newcomers to the job market, the dynamics are shifting. Moreover, recent declines in immigration levels further impact the availability of prime-age workers.”

Assessing the labor market’s health in this context is increasingly complex. “Are we witnessing high productivity with fewer jobs? Should we prioritize wage growth as a barometer, especially for lower-wage segments?” Bachaud questioned, underscoring the economy’s current climate and the improbability of returning to monthly job growth of 200,000 or more.

From January 2025 to September 2026, the average payroll growth was a mere 35,000 jobs. In this timeframe, only one month exceeded the 200,000 mark, while seven months experienced job losses.

Interestingly, the unemployment rate has only increased slightly, by 0.2 percentage points, illustrating a paradox in the current labor landscape.

During the same period, the labor force shrank by 434,000, with nearly one million fewer participants compared to September 2025. The labor force participation rate has also decreased significantly, falling to 61.8%, down 0.8 percentage points.

Nevertheless, some indicators signal resilience within the labor market.

Initial jobless claims reached 189,000 last week, the lowest level since July 1969, indicating a stable workforce. Additionally, September saw job openings rise by 333,000, and the number of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs—a sign of job market confidence—hit 3.36 million, marking a peak not seen in over a year and a half.

However, long-term unemployment remains a pressing issue. The number of individuals jobless for more than 25 weeks has surged by 495,000 since January 2025, with the average duration of unemployment now at 24.8 weeks, an increase of 2.8 weeks, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data through September.

The Federal Reserve typically views the labor market as robust, yet concerns linger. Bachaud noted, “If you have a job, you’re likely doing fine. The issue arises for those who are unemployed; the decline in job transitions means less movement in the labor market, presenting challenges for reentry.”