Bitcoin’s latest on-chain and derivatives data points to a constructive setup, with VanEck highlighting lower volatility and prudent positioning, as well as negative funding rates and clustered hashrate drawdowns.
In its latest report, the firm notes that while realized volatility has fallen from approximately 56% to 41% as tensions ease between the US and Iran, the seven-day average funding rate has fallen to approximately -1.8%, the lowest level since 2023 and in the 10th percentile of measurements since late 2020.
Since 2020, Bitcoin’s average 30-day return during negative funding periods was 11.5%, compared to 4.5% over the entire period, with a positive performance hit rate of 77%. When annualized funding was below -5%, the subsequent 30-day return averaged 19.4% and the 180-day return reached 70%, making negative funding a recurrent contrarian buy signal. VanEck also reports that 19 of the top 50 180-day return periods since 2020 began on days when funds were negative, despite representing only about 13.6% of the sample.
Bitcoin hashrate is decreasing
On the mining side, the 30-day moving average hash rate has dropped to the 16th percentile at 30 days and the 9th percentile at 90 days, while difficulty has dropped to the 5th and 6th percentiles across these ranges.
Three sustained hashrate declines have occurred since December 2025, the densest cluster since the 2021 Chinese mining ban, with the most recent drawdown ending on April 15, 2026 at approximately 6.7%. Of the past seven completed drawdowns, six have seen Bitcoin rise after 90 days, with a median increase of 37.7% and a median increase of 63.1% over 180 days.
Derivatives and on-chain activity reflects sentiments of caution rather than capitulation. The put premium relative to spot volume is more than six times the April 2024 level, while active supply over the past 180 days has fallen to 28.4%, indicating growing dormancy among holders.
Longer-term holders, especially those who have held for seven to 10 years and those who have held for more than 10 years, have seen their usage increase to the 85th and 90th percentiles over the past four years, but VanEck emphasizes that such a move does not necessarily mean they are buying outright.
Overall, the firm concludes that negative funding and hashrate stress are reinforcing the bullish backdrop for Bitcoin.
“Both mining rate drawdowns and negative funding rates are associated with strong future returns for Bitcoin, which makes us increasingly bullish on Bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.
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