Tuesday’s primaries in three states left incumbents wobbling, setting up general election matchups and prolonging intraparty fights in the runoffs.
They also highlighted broader lessons about the current state of national politics, from President Donald Trump’s enduring power over the Republican Party to the ideological, generational and strategic disagreements that continue to divide the Democratic Party.
In Texas, where the Republican Senate primary is set for a May 26 runoff between four-term Sen. John Cornyn and the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton, questions swirl over the race as to whether Trump will ultimately be on his side after other races have proven his strength.
Meanwhile, early Wednesday morning, NBC News reported that state Rep. James Talarico will defeat Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. And the night of close defeats for incumbent House members of both parties was full of painful signs for other establishment players preparing to cast their votes to the polls later this year.
Here are the key takeaways from Tuesday’s primary.
Democrats choose warriors
Mr. Talarico’s victory in the general election is also a victory for those who are pushing the party’s populist line beyond a confrontation with Mr. Trump.
On the campaign trail, Mr. Talarico often said the battle was less about “left versus right” and more about “top versus bottom,” aimed at a political and economic system run by billionaires. Crockett, on the other hand, has taken aim more directly at Trump, emphasizing his conflict with the president and pitching himself as a fighter against Trump.
The state representative also regularly criticized Trump, but his claims were broader.
“This is really about values and being morally clear about who’s making people’s lives harder,” said Tory Gavito, a Texas Democratic strategist and president of the donor network Way to Win.
“I’m not sure we’ve ever had such a clear economic populist message since at least LBJ,” Gabito said, referring to former President Lyndon B. Johnson, who is also a former Texas senator.
Mr. Talarico also pitched himself as a potential bipartisan unifying candidate, while Mr. Crockett argued that he could reach new voters who tend to support Democrats. And he highlighted his extensive campaign organization, noting that his campaign had organized 22,000 volunteers during the recent campaign stoppage.
Gavitt noted that Talarico began her campaign several months before Crockett, but she entered the race with a higher profile and national profile.
“I feel like the strength of Talarico’s infrastructure was important,” Gabito says.
The fight for the future of the Republican Party impacts Texas
Texas’ intense Republican primary will continue for another 12 weeks, and the battle over what kind of Republican Party will survive in today’s Republican Party and what kind of Republican Party will survive in the general election will continue.
With Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt withdrawing from the race after coming under attack from both of his opponents, Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Paxton can aim squarely at each other, and both are ready to fight.
The primary runoff will be a test of whether longtime lawmakers like Cornyn, a self-described “workhorse,” can have a place in President Trump’s Republican Party, or whether the combative Paxton can rally MAGA followers despite personal and professional disputes.
Despite both Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Paxton touting the first-round results in heart-pounding tones, neither the longtime incumbent nor the well-known MAGA warrior could muster a majority of the primary vote.
“Elections are about choices, and the choice in the Republican Senate race is very clear,” Cornyn said Tuesday night. “I have worked for decades to build the Republican Party here in Texas and across the country, and I will not allow a flawed, self-centered, shameless candidate like Ken Paxton to jeopardize everything we have worked so hard to build over the years.”
Mr. Cornyn has repeatedly said that Mr. Paxton’s controversies, including his 2023 impeachment on bribery charges (which the state Senate acquitted) and his ongoing divorce, would put the Senate seat at risk of flipping in November.
Meanwhile, Paxton said Tuesday night that “there are changes on the ballot.” Throughout the primary campaign, he has argued that he is better able to motivate MAGA voters than Cornyn.
“Texans need new leadership. We want someone with a proven track record of fighting and winning for Texans, and that’s exactly what I’m going to do because John Cornyn has turned his back on us for too long,” Paxton said.
Mr. Paxton accused millions of dollars of being spent to drum up support for Mr. Cornyn ahead of Tuesday’s primary. Cornyn and his allies spent more than $78 million on advertising, while Hunt and his allies spent more than $12 million and Paxton and his allies more than $4 million.
“We just sent a message loud and clear to Washington that we’re not going to go quietly, we’re not going to let them buy this seat,” Paxton said.
Democrats face populist headwinds
A victory is a victory. But even if one weak Democratic incumbent wins a House primary, these primaries pose worrying signs for Democratic incumbents and insiders amid rising populism and generational anxiety within the party.
Two-term U.S. Rep. Valerie Houshie holds a roughly 1,000-vote lead over her opponent, Durham County Commissioner Nida Alam, in a rematch of a tough 2022 primary.
Mr. Allam attacked the incumbent for being too supportive of Israel amid growing left-wing criticism of the Israeli government’s actions in the Gaza Strip and its relationship with the United States. Challengers framed the incumbent as aligned with corporate interests. And Alam, 32, insisted it was he, not Houthi, 69, who had the new energy needed to deal with this political moment.
The race comes after Analilia Mejia, a self-proclaimed activist and provocateur, pulled off a major upset in the Democratic House special primary in New Jersey last month.
NBC News has not yet predicted the winner of the Fouthi-Arum race. But there are many lessons to be learned within razor-thin margins. Ms. Foushi emphasized her progressive credentials on this path and leaned into the support of her colleagues, arguing that her experience will help the district cope with this moment. And while she signed a bill aimed at restricting the sale of some offensive weapons to Israel, she rejected support from pro-Israel groups.
In Houston, newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee, 37, has a narrow lead over 78-year-old Rep. Al Green in an uncalled Democratic primary. Barely a month after winning his seat in a special election, Mr. Menefe cast himself as someone who can effectuate change in his district, directly calling for people to turn the page and empower a new generation of leaders.
Similar developments could play a role in Democratic primaries for key House and Senate seats across the country, focusing attention on incumbents and established political veterans.
Trump’s strong support
President Donald Trump’s support remains the most valuable coin in major Republican policy areas, and Republicans want it. And as Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) proved Tuesday night, they often can’t survive just by standing out because they lack support.
Crenshaw has been critical of Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and frequently sparred with officials from Trump’s MAGA movement. Mr. Trump endorsed all Republican congressmen up for re-election in Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina, but declined to penalize Mr. Crenshaw.
On Tuesday, Crenshaw lost the primary to state Rep. Steve Toth.
It’s impossible to say exactly how much Trump’s stay-at-home decision helped Toth. But there’s no question it hurt Crenshaw or that other Republicans will heed Crenshaw’s lessons.
A slightly different dynamic played out in the Texas Senate primary. Trump supported Cornyn in 2020, but refrained from doing so this year. Mr. Cornyn fell short of the majority needed to win the Republican nomination on Tuesday, but advanced to a runoff against Mr. Paxton.
It is not yet clear whether President Trump will choose a horse in the runoff. People familiar with White House thinking and strategy told NBC News this week that Trump is likely to support Cornyn if the race remains close — and the senator certainly has. Mr. Cornyn’s performance could strengthen the idea that he is a less risky way to keep the Texas Senate seat in Republican hands. If President Trump acts on that idea, it could tip the balance in the primary runoff.
Mr. Trump’s candidates generally fared well in competitive House races, with former Major League Baseball star Mark Teixeira, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, retired Army veteran Eric Flores, and former Justice Department official Jessica Steinman all winning primaries with Mr. Trump’s support.
Still, Trump’s support was not an absolute deciding factor in some areas of the crowded Texas primary. In Texas’ 9th Congressional District, President Trump-backed veteran Alex Mealer faces a runoff against state Rep. Briscoe Cain. And in the 35th Congressional District, businessman Carlos Delacruz will head to the runoff as the second-place vote-getter despite President Trump’s support.
How President Trump’s political choices are shaping his policy trajectory in Washington
President Trump’s approval ratings are declining, with polls showing Americans are dissatisfied with his handling of the economy and immigration, two of the issues that drove his return to the White House. But Trump’s political grip on his party extends to governing as well.
Given Mr. Crenshaw’s long struggle and Mr. Trump’s mad dash for political support, it is unlikely that Republicans seeking re-election will break with the president anytime soon. That’s because, as mentioned above, Tuesday night made it clear once again that Trump still maintains ties with Republican primary voters. This is a useful tool for keeping Republican lawmakers aligned with his priorities while his allies in the party control both the House and Senate.
Meanwhile, President Trump recently demonstrated that he can withdraw his support just as easily as he declares it. The president exercised his power by rescinding the support of freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.), who broke with his party and voted in favor of eliminating tariffs on Canada.
A key vote is soon scheduled on Capitol Hill on the War Powers Resolution, which would limit President Trump’s authority to act against Iran, and could lead to further votes on repealing tariffs, among other things. Tuesday’s results did not provide any political upside for Congressional Republicans to break ranks on these items.
Talarico did well among Latinos. What does it mean for the future?
Texas’ Democratic Senate primary has not yet been called, but early vote counting shows Mr. Talarico winning in counties with large Latino populations and building a lead over Mr. Crockett.
Pre-election polls showed Crockett’s overwhelming support among black voters and Talarico’s lead among white voters, and it was believed that Latino voters could be a decisive group in the race.
As of early Wednesday, Talarico had won in all but one of the counties reporting election results where the population is more than 80% Latino.
Talarico courted Latino voters during the primary campaign by running television ads in Spanish and campaigning in heavily Latino areas of the state. He also received support from Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, who won the Democratic House primary in South Texas, a potentially battleground state.
If Talarico is the nominee, it could be a positive sign for Democrats. With Latino voters leaning toward Republicans over the past few election cycles, especially in 2024, Democrats need candidates who can help reverse that trend. These results may be a good starting point for Talarico, but appealing to Latino primary voters is one thing, appealing to Latino general election voters is another.
