The unexpected tornado in Kansas follows a similar high-profile event in Michigan last month when no tornado watch was issued in southern Michigan, killing four people. However, the NWS office issued a warning if a tornado was imminent.
Michigan Democratic Sens. Gary Peters and Elissa Slotkin sent a letter to NWS Director Ken Graham asking why no watches were issued, whether staffing shortages were a factor, and how the NWS plans to improve its tornado warnings. A spokesperson said NWS wrote a response directly to the senators but did not share it with NBC News.
The NWS has taken steps to strengthen its position since the staffing shortage began, but outside meteorologists say the effects remain.
“It wasn’t something that was solved overnight, and given what we’re seeing in the balloons, I don’t think it’s solved yet,” Baguskie said. “Any severe weather day is a concern…and the real heart of tornado season is late April into May.”
Forecasters at the NWS office in Kansas City said they viewed the atmosphere Monday as “unstable” and knew the storm could become more intense if it forms. But meteorologists thought the storm was unlikely to form.
“There was a very good chance we wouldn’t get any showers or thunderstorms at all. It would be a perfect environment for nothing to happen, nothing to happen,” said Brad Temeyer, a meteorologist in the Kansas City office. “It was an unlikely event, but considering it did happen, it had a huge impact.”
Temeyer said authorities surveyed the tornado damage on Tuesday.
“There were no significant injuries or fatalities. We went out today to survey the storm and everyone said they were preparing for the possibility of a tornado and evacuated once the warning was issued,” he said.
Brian LaMarr, who until last April was the meteorologist-in-charge for Weather Consultants at the National Weather Service’s weather station in Tampa Bay, Florida, said he reviewed forecast models for Monday before and after the later-than-usual weather balloon release.
He said none of the models identified any thunderstorm risk in the southwest Kansas City area this morning. But when the model incorporated balloon data, it began to suggest clusters of thunderstorms, Lamarre said. Further research is needed to understand whether this change is due to the added balloon data.
“There needs to be an investigation in the sense of investigating why it didn’t happen. Why wasn’t it caught? What was missed?” he said.
More severe weather is possible in the Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center predicts a risk of severe thunderstorms into the weekend.
“We just want people to continue to be cautious,” Temeyer said of the Kansas City area.
