WASHINGTON – Less than 48 hours after President Donald Trump told Americans that the U.S. military had “defeated and completely annihilated Iran,” Iran shot down an F-15E fighter jet and launched a risky scramble by the U.S. military to rescue two service members from deep inside Iranian territory. Iran also attacked two Black Hawk helicopters and an attack aircraft that were supporting search and rescue operations.
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The tragic incident underscores the growing challenges facing the president as the war enters its second month. Despite daily bombing campaigns and the president’s stories of wartime victories, Iran retains sufficient military power to inflict significant damage on U.S. military personnel and U.S. allies and assets in the Middle East.
“They don’t have anti-aircraft equipment,” President Trump said of Iran in a speech this week. “Their radar has been 100% destroyed. As a military force, we can’t stop them.”
About half of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers are still intact and thousands of one-way strike drones remain in its arsenal, according to U.S. officials and people briefed on the matter. Sources said Iran’s underground missile stockpiles were also undamaged. And they said Iran could still fire missiles at ships passing through the region’s waterways.
Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a diplomatic think tank, said of the Iranians: “At the current rate of fire, we think they can hold out for a while.” He said Iran is also getting better at hiding its weapons arsenal.
Friday’s F-15E attack by Iran marked the first time in decades that a U.S. fighter jet was shot down by enemy fire. One of the servicemen was rescued, and the other was searched by the US military. A U.S. soldier in the Black Hawk helicopter suffered minor injuries, and the pilot of the A-10 Thunderbolt attack plane safely ejected over Kuwait, U.S. officials said.
However, this development signaled a potential turning point in the war for Americans. That’s because the White House’s explanation for how the war is going — emphasizing U.S. military successes and downplaying the threat still posed by Iran — contradicts that harsh reality. A senior White House official said President Trump convened his national security team to the White House on Friday night to monitor the unfolding situation.
A White House press secretary did not respond to a request for comment.
Earlier this week, the White House assured Americans that Iran no longer controls its airspace. White House press secretary Caroline Levitt said Monday that “the joint U.S.-Israeli force has commanded the skies and is asserting air superiority over Iran.”
But since President Trump’s prime-time address to the nation on Wednesday, praising his “swift, decisive and overwhelming victory on the battlefield,” Iran has launched at least 50 ballistic missiles and more than 150 drones targeting the United States and its allies across the Middle East, according to a tally compiled by NBC News.
At least 16 American Reaper drones have been shot down since the war began, two of them this week, U.S. officials said.
President Trump also claimed that the Iranian regime is gone and that a more sympathetic regime is in power, with which he is negotiating diplomatically with the regime to end the war. The Iranian government’s ability to dam the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz with drones and other low-cost weapons has kept gasoline prices rising, while the president has given mixed signals about how and when the conflict will end. President Trump told NBC News on Friday that talks with Iran would not be affected by the downing of the F-15E.
However, Iran says no direct talks are taking place. And there is no indication in the United States that Iran’s dictatorship has lost its grip on power or that the assassinated leader’s successors have broken away from the Islamic republic’s hardline anti-Israel and anti-American stance, according to multiple Western officials, U.S. intelligence assessments and regional analysts. The Iranian who replaced the senior leader is known as a hardliner, like his predecessor, or perhaps even more belligerent, sources said.
It has been difficult to independently quantify the state of the war, including the level of U.S. military success, in part because the Trump administration has released so little information. The United States releases general data and videos about targets and missiles fired, and there is no independent news outlet embedded within the U.S. military as in past conflicts.
Gen. Dan Kaine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the United States has airspace superiority in parts of western and southern Iran, but not yet in the east. Grieco, a fellow at the Stimson Center, said the United States does not have an advantage in the east and Iran is using its capabilities to harm the United States and prolong the conflict through asymmetric warfare, such as drones, hidden missile launchers, sea mines and small attack craft used in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranians “still have the capabilities and capabilities, and the real question for me is, what are they potentially able to do with that capability and capability that they have,” she said. “What we are seeing is an asymmetric war being waged in air and sea space.”
Iranian media published the photo on Friday along with a claim that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had shot down an F-15E. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf then trolled Trump with a post about X.
“After defeating Iran 37 times in a row, this brilliant no-strategy war they started has now been downgraded from ‘regime change’ to ‘hey! Can someone please find our pilots? Please?’ Wow. What an incredible advance. Absolute genius.” One service member remains missing.
President Trump finds the United States increasingly isolated as its allies sit on the sidelines and refuse to participate in wars they were not consulted about joining before they began.
President Trump this week stepped up his attacks on European allies, deriding NATO allies who show “courage” and refuse to lead in the Strait of Hormuz minesweeping. He is also angry that Britain, France and Spain have not given the United States unfettered access to their airspace and military bases to attack Iran. The NATO Secretary-General was scheduled to head to the White House next week.
