Bitcoin prices, and the general cryptocurrency market, have risen significantly over the past week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East appeared to temporarily come to a halt. The leading cryptocurrency has maintained relatively strong momentum since breaking through the psychological $70,000 resistance on Tuesday, April 7th.
Now, this sudden resurgence has sparked a debate among crypto enthusiasts as to whether Bitcoin prices have yet to form a structural bottom. The world’s largest cryptocurrency could still experience a “final dump” before this bearish period ends, according to a prominent crypto founder.
On-chain signals show another BTC drop
In an April 10 post on the X Platform, Alpharactal founder and CEO Joanne Wesson highlighted new signals that suggest the price of Bitcoin is likely to fall one more time. This prediction is based on on-chain insights that suggest BTC price tends towards the bottom of the cycle when the investor price falls below the long-term holder (LTH) realized price.
Wesson explained the relevance of this on-chain insight and why it appears before major prices and subsequent coin accumulation. According to on-chain data experts, the investor price is an indicator that measures the average cost of an economically active coin, and if it falls below the LTH realized price, it suggests more new capital has flowed in at a lower price than what long-term investors paid.
Mr. Wesson writes about X as follows:
This usually occurs after the distribution stage when demand weakens and marginal buyers withdraw. Long-term holders have historically sold for less as prices approach or fall below cost basis.
Source: @joao_wedson from X
As shown in the chart above, the LTH realized price appears to be above the investor price. This marks a transition phase where strong hands gradually absorb supply while weak hands exit. However, it is worth noting that this absorption is slower than expected. This explains why Bitcoin price often falls into an intermediate accumulation range.
Additionally, with investor prices below the LTH realized price, market spikes tend to fade quickly in response to supply (selling pressure) from investors looking to exit at break-even prices. This phenomenon caps the current upside potential of the major cryptocurrencies and strengthens the possibility of prices moving sideways downwards until new demand impulses emerge.
Finally, Wesson noted that Bitcoin’s current price structure has historically coincided with mid-cycle resets rather than final troughs, reflecting the market “digesting” previous excesses, rebalancing the cost base, and moving the coin to more patient investors. “The environment favors time-based accumulation over momentum-based expansion,” the Alpha Lactal founders wrote.
Bitcoin price overview
As of this writing, the price of BTC is just above $73,100, reflecting an increase of nearly 2% over the past day.
BTC price on daily time frame | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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