As Alaska’s election officials continue to tally votes weeks after Election Day, the fate of incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan appears increasingly uncertain. His opponent, Democrat Mary Peltola, is showing a strong lead in the still undecided Senate race, with prospects of winning through either a simple majority or via ranked choice voting, according to an analysis by NBC News Decision Desk.
Current Standings
Peltola is ahead of Sullivan by 3.7 percentage points, amounting to a lead of over 10,000 votes. With 96% of the expected vote counted, NBC News has indicated that Peltola is likely to clinch the election. The final results are anticipated to be reported by Wednesday, November 18.
Voting Process and Deadlines
In Alaska, if no candidate garners more than 50% of the votes, the state employs a ranked choice voting system. This process involves the elimination of the lowest-ranked candidates one at a time, redistributing their votes based on voters’ preferences. Ballots where voters did not rank remaining candidates are termed “exhausted” and will not be included in the final tally.
November 18 also marks the deadline for the receipt of final mail-in absentee ballots, contributing to the prolonged nature of this electoral process. Remaining results are expected to be unveiled early next week, and it is on this day that the Division of Elections will carry out the ranked choice tabulation if necessary.
Peltola’s Path to Victory
If Peltola achieves over 50% of the remaining votes, she will automatically win the election without the need for a ranked choice calculation. Current trends indicate that she needs to secure just 53.8% of those remaining ballots, a feasible goal considering her recent surge in reported votes. For instance, she received 58% of newly reported ballots as of Friday night.
Sullivan’s Challenges
Sullivan has two possible routes to attempt to secure reelection: overtaking Peltola in first-choice votes or succeeding through the ranked choice voting process. However, an analysis by NBC News shows the likelihood of either scenario playing out in his favor is slim.
First-choice Vote Analysis
With approximately 12,000 votes still to be counted, Sullivan needs to capture around 92% of these ballots to achieve parity with Peltola. Achieving such a figure would require him to significantly outperform past tallies, as he garnered only 38% of the most recent votes reported.
Ranked Choice Voting Analysis
Should the election proceed to ranked choice voting, Sullivan also faces significant hurdles. Currently, there are about 11,300 ballots that favored other candidates, and these could be redistributed. There is a potential for this number to grow to around 12,000 as more votes are counted.
To close the nearly 10,400 vote gap with Peltola, Sullivan would need to win over 93% of the redistributed votes, a nearly insurmountable challenge given what has been observed about voter preferences so far.
Impact of Vote Exhaustion
Further complicating Sullivan’s outlook is the phenomenon of ballot exhaustion. Data from the Alaska Division of Elections indicates that many voters who initially supported other candidates did not rank either Peltola or Sullivan as subsequent choices. Over 45% of those who voted for third party candidates or write-ins are expected to have their votes go unused in the ranked choice process.
If ballot exhaustion rates continue as expected, Sullivan can anticipate only about 6,600 ballots from the ranked choice redistribution. This means that if he trails by more than 6,600 votes after all ballots are counted, he cannot mathematically overcome Peltola’s lead.
Conclusion
As the Alaska Division of Elections continues its work, the NBC News Decision Desk remains vigilant in assessing the remaining ballots to determine whether an official projection of the race can be made, or if the outcome will necessitate a ranked choice tally to identify the final victor.
