Strait of Hormuz traffic recovers, but uncertainty threatens recovery

A week after the United States and Iran signed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, shipping traffic is picking up, but a new attack on a cargo ship on Thursday created new uncertainty in the fragile strait, halting a United Nations evacuation plan and forcing some tankers to back up.

In the week after the ceasefire was announced, 125 shipments were recorded between June 15 and June 21, the highest weekly number since the war began in late February, as tankers rushed to move stored Gulf crude before the 60-day ceasefire expired.

On June 24, AXS Marine recorded 62 merchant ship crossings, the highest number in a single day since the start of the war, but this was only 53% of the traffic on the same day last year.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps declared on Wednesday that all ships must only use the northern route and follow Iran’s shipping instructions. A few hours later, the Singapore-flagged Evergreen container ship Everlovely was hit by a projectile on its starboard side off the coast of Oman. U.S. officials said the Revolutionary Guard carried out the airstrike. This was the first attack on a cargo ship since the ceasefire took effect.

The Strait of Hormuz, located in the Gulf between Oman and Iran, is recognized as one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. This narrow waterway typically handles about 20% of the world’s oil shipments.

Shipowners are left to navigate between two competing authorities without agreed rules, with the northern corridor under Iranian control and the southern corridor passing through Omani waters. Standard pre-war commercial lanes remain closed due to mines.

Iran has warned that it will take action against vessels that do not use the Northern Passage or cooperate with Iranian authorities. The United States and Oman supported an independent Southern Corridor, with Oman providing navigational guidance and the U.S. Navy providing naval oversight.

Companies face difficult choices. They may take the risk of making the transition, or they may hold back and cede ground to rivals who take that risk.

Bruce Tan, a Singapore-based electronics manufacturer that had put deliveries to customers in the Middle East on hold for four months, said it had started transporting goods through the corridor again, albeit only in small batches, in case the strait was closed again. Mr Tan is also shipping some orders through a separate aisle to hedge against the risk of another store closure.

Aristidis Alafouzos, CEO of Greek-based crude oil carrier Oceanis Eco Tankers, said he did not expect Thursday’s attack on the ship in the Gulf of Oman to “significantly change” the waterway’s shipping trends.

“We’ve seen a huge increase, especially in the oil shipping lanes, and I think that’s going to continue,” Alafouzos said Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.” “Maybe this one-off event is not enough to really disrupt the recent events of Kuwait and the Emirates’ massive oil exports from the Gulf.”

“The only big missing factor is Saudi Arabia. So far, almost nothing is exported from within the Arabian Gulf, everything is coming from Yanbu on the Red Sea.”

Analysts have warned that transit through the waterway remains dangerous, and shipping companies have called for clarity on safe navigation, the potential for tolls and how sanctions will affect any future routes opened.

“We don’t know how much mining is going on in the strait. It can be very dangerous to go through it,” said Tim Huxley, CEO of Singapore-based Mandarin Shipping, which manages 50 ships around the world and keeps all ships out of the strait.

“There’s a debate going on about who is allowing the ship to sail, and how much control Iran has on one side and the US on the other. Many shipowners are just saying, ‘We’re going to wait and see how the negotiations progress before we commit to sending the ship, its cargo, and most importantly its crew,'” Huxley said.

“Insurance premiums for ships and cargo passing through the Channel remain very high,” Huxley said. “Until we have more specific guidelines for safe navigation, people are going to be very reluctant.”

Asia Group’s China director Han Sheng Ling was more candid about the predicament facing corporate executives.

“Boards are not asking about the safety of the cargo, they are asking whether it is insured. The war risk premium has jumped from 0.05% to more than 0.7% of the hull value per shipment. This is not a risk premium, but a serious stress test of the business model,” Han said.

“If you seize a ship, you don’t just lose cargo; you also lose customer relationships, insurance renewals, and the confidence of your board of directors. Speed ​​is meaningless without survivability,” Han said.