Jeff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, declared on Friday that the crypto market cycle is in a downturn, with Bitcoin’s recent drop to about $59,000 the bottom of its recent decline. This is a 53% drop from October’s all-time high of $126,000.
“Winter is over. Welcome to crypto spring,” Kendrick wrote in a note on Friday, adding, “I believe we are beginning to see the lows in the crypto price cycle.”
At the time of Kendrick’s memo, Bitcoin had recovered to around $64,000, up about 5% from the previous week. The bank maintains its price target for Bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of the year, a forecast first announced in February.
SpaceX IPO depletes crypto liquidity, then frees up
One of the two main catalysts Kendrick cited was the historic Nasdaq debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which priced its $75 billion IPO on June 12 at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX.
The stock price opened well above its public offering price, rising about 20% on its debut day. Kendrick argued that the bulk of recent Bitcoin ETF outflows, totaling more than $5.72 billion since the second week of May, making them some of the steepest “since inception,” were due to investors liquidating their positions in the cryptocurrency to secure SpaceX allocations. With the IPO starting, that particular selling pressure could ease, he said.
The overlap between cryptocurrencies and SpaceX demand was already unfolding in real time. On Hyperliquid, the SpaceX (SPCX) perpetual contract has amassed more than $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour volume ahead of its debut, ranking it as the eighth-largest asset on the platform.
Iran is a wild card
The second catalyst involves geopolitics. A potential peace deal between the United States and Iran ahead of next week’s G7 summit could ease pressure on global oil supplies, which have been tight since the war in the Middle East began.
The drop in oil prices has since dampened the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, but the increased appeal of risk-free government debt has weighed on risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell about 1.5% on Friday to about $85 to $86 per barrel. However, the story of the peace agreement remained fragile.
President Trump said Thursday that a breakthrough could be seen this weekend, but later posted on Truth Social that the announced deal was not a done deal and warned Iranian officials to “get their act together,” adding uncertainty to the macro outlook.
3 Bitcoin price signals to watch
Kendrick outlined three confirmation signals that validate his call. First, CEO Michael Saylor’s buying history serves as a reliable demand signal for institutional demand, so he is eyeing Strategy to announce additional Bitcoin purchases on Monday.
Second, he expects the US Spot Bitcoin ETF to return to daily net inflows on Friday.
Third, he hopes that world oil prices will continue to fall as the Iranian diplomatic situation develops.
If all three come true, Kendrick’s crypto spring hypothesis would receive the clearest validation yet, suggesting that institutional and macro forces are finally aligning to push Bitcoin back towards the bank’s year-end target of $100,000.
