Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the expected U.S.-Iranian talks are not scheduled. 82% of people approve of President Trump’s lifting of the blockade of Hormuz by May 31st, down from 90% the day before.
market reaction
82% of respondents said President Trump would lift the lockdown by May 31st, a drop of 5 points in one day. On April 19th, the submarket plummeted to 8% of YES, down 20 points in the past 24 hours. The 70-point difference between April 19th and May 31st suggests that traders expect a resolution to potentially occur in the weeks between these dates, rather than earlier.
The probability that President Trump will meet with Iran by April 30 was 10.9% in favor, down from 22% the day before. Traders are pricing in the diplomatic meeting not being scheduled.
why is it important
USDC trading volume is $29,602. According to the order book, it would take $1,419 to move the May 31st submarket by 5 points, making it a thin market where a single large order can move the odds. The biggest move in the last 24 hours was a 6 point drop in the market at 6:05pm on April 19th, likely caused by a large sell order.
The closure of the strait and the lack of scheduled talks between the United States and Iran signal a clear setback in relations. This is bad news for traders betting on a short-term solution. At 13 cents, YES stock for US-Iran talks by April 30th would pay $1 if resolved, a 7.7x return. Payment would require a swift diplomatic breakthrough, but there is currently no sign of that happening.
what to see
Any public announcement by Trump or the Iranian government regarding a blockade or new diplomatic engagement could quickly move these markets.
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