As 2026 begins, the crypto industry is entering a much different phase than the frenzied, finance-driven boom of 2025. Gemini Institutional Director Patrick Lo gave a clear perspective on where the market is headed, from the consolidation of digital asset treasury companies and the future of the ‘digital gold’ narrative, to sovereign introduction, geopolitics and why crypto exchanges will evolve. A full stack financial platform.
What emerges is a rapidly maturing industry, where speculation has given way to strategy.
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Digital asset treasury: From hype to consolidation
Digital asset treasury was one of the biggest stories of 2025. Dozens of companies, many of which are struggling or unprofitable, have pivoted to buying Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, rebranding themselves as “digital asset treasuries.” The result was a wave of stock price spikes, followed by sharp corrections as volatility increased.
Patrick Lo believes those days are coming to an end.
“The market is showing that there is not a lot of demand for dozens of digital asset bonds overall,” he said. “Your strategy can’t just be about owning Bitcoin. Your strategy should be about what you do with it.”
According to Lowe, the future is integration. Instead of hundreds of small financial institutions, the market will cluster around a small number of “lead horses” in each region and each major asset – companies that know how to creatively use capital markets, structured finance and leverage to give investors more than simple spot exposure.
MicroStrategy remains the best-known example in the US, but players like Strive and Japan’s Metaplan are emerging as regional champions. The value is no longer simply in holding Bitcoin, but in how efficiently these companies acquire Bitcoin, raise capital, and build investor exposure.
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Why the business model of “just holding Bitcoin” collapsed
For Law, the old financial model is fundamentally flawed.
“If you just want to get 1:1 Bitcoin, you’re better off buying Bitcoin yourself or through an ETF.”
The only reason a finance company makes sense is if it provides leverage, financial engineering, or unique access. For example, giving investors exposure to 1.2 Bitcoin per share through structured products and capital market strategies.
This change explains why many small treasury finance companies are struggling. The premium investors who were once willing to pay have collapsed. As a result, mergers and acquisitions are inevitable.
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Will the MicroStrategy crash be a black swan?
Because MicroStrategy holds large Bitcoin positions, there are persistent concerns that a forced liquidation could trigger a market crisis similar to FTX.
Obviously, this comparison is flawed.
“The same is not the case with FTX. MicroStrategy’s capital structure is fairly well protected from the need to trigger a forced sale.”
While a forced liquidation would be an unfavorable signal for the market, any impact would likely be far more muted than the systemic collapse caused by FTX’s fraud.
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Bigger Opportunity: Companies Allocating Bitcoin
The most important change, Lo argues, is that profitable companies, rather than speculative finance companies, are allocating a small portion of their balance sheets to Bitcoin.
“Imagine an S&P 500 company with a good cash balance allocating 5% of its treasury to Bitcoin. This is where this really adds value to the crypto industry.”
At Gemini, Low said he is focused on educating large public companies that Bitcoin is “digital gold” and a diversification tool away from fiat currencies and U.S. Treasuries.
List | 10 listed companies with the largest amount of Bitcoin holdings as of April 2025
Digital gold is still alive – despite gold outperforming in 2025
In 2025, the “digital gold” narrative took a hit as gold hit an all-time high while Bitcoin struggled. But Law is confident.
“Gold outperformed Bitcoin last year, but if you zoom out over the past 10 years, Bitcoin is the clear winner.”
Beyond price, the operational benefits are decisive. Bitcoin is divisible, transferable 24/7, and built on modern blockchain infrastructure. This is different from physical gold, which is expensive and slow to move.
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Sovereign States: Who Sells Gold to Buy Bitcoin?
One of Low’s boldest predictions is that sovereign nations will sell some of their gold reserves to buy Bitcoin.
The United States is an obvious candidate and has already formalized digital assets within its strategic preparedness framework.
But Mr Low is also looking at countries with a high gold-to-GDP ratio and countries looking to diversify away from dependence on the dollar.
“Once a sovereign makes a trade where they sell gold and buy Bitcoin, the digital gold narrative becomes fully mainstream.”
According to him, Russia and China stand to benefit most from reducing their dependence on the US dollar, even if their approach to cryptocurrencies remains cautious for now.
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Bitcoin as an apolitical monetary network
Low believes Bitcoin’s greatest long-term strength is that it is essentially apolitical.
“Bitcoin has always been designed to be an apolitical means of monetary exchange.”
See also
As geopolitical tensions rise and the dollar’s supremacy is called into question, Bitcoin’s neutrality makes it a strategic asset, especially for countries seeking economic independence from the US-centered system.
Opinion | Why Russia’s claims about America’s crypto reset plan actually make sense
New York, politics, and the crypto capital of the world
Despite regulatory headwinds and political uncertainty, Lo sees New York remaining as the crypto capital of the United States.
“New York is the crypto hub of the United States and one of the crypto hubs of the world.”
Gemini, major exchanges, token foundations, and ETF issuers are all headquartered here, and the success of the Bitcoin ETF has only strengthened New York’s role as a bridge between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies.
Regulation | Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) allows national banks to act as intermediaries in cryptocurrency transactions
The Future: Cryptocurrency Exchanges as Financial Super Apps
Looking to the future, Lo predicts that exchanges like Gemini will evolve into full-stack financial platforms.
“In the future, instead of logging into your banking app, you will be able to do everything through a crypto app like Gemini.”
Cryptocurrency trading, tokenized stocks, prediction markets, banking services, and on-chain financial products will converge into a single interface, transforming exchanges into the primary financial hubs of the new digital economy.
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conclusion
Patrick Law’s message is clear. 2026 will be about survival, strategy, and maturity.
A treasure trove of digital assets will be consolidated. Companies will quietly adopt Bitcoin. Sovereigns will gradually move closer to treating it as digital gold. And crypto platforms will become the new financial infrastructure.
After a decade of volatility and experimentation, the crypto industry is no longer just chasing hype, but building long-term foundations.
Outlook for 2026 | “Big Four” accounting firms aim to strengthen cryptocurrency services in 2026
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