According to André Dragosch, Bitwise’s head of European research, Bitwise’s growing institutional adoption could provide the “structural” inflow needed to surpass gold’s market capitalization and exceed the price of more than $1 million by 2029.
“Our internal forecast is $1 million by 2029. So Bitcoin will coincide with Gold’s market capitalization and total adbound market by 2029,” he told Cointelegraph at the April 30 Chain Reaction Daily X Space Show.
Companies are coming for your bitcoin (feat. André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise) #ChainReaction https://t.co/5f3crwbhzq
– Cointelegraph (@cointelegraph) April 30, 2025
Gold is currently the world’s largest asset and is worth more than $21.7 trillion. By comparison, Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $1.9 trillion, making it the seventh largest asset in the world, according to data from CompaniesmarketCap.
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In the 2025 market cycle, Bitcoin could surpass $200,000 in the “basic case” and $500,000 in government adoption, Dragosh said.
“But when you look at the bias of sovereignty that the US government is intervening, all this changes to $500,000.”
“The basic incident is therefore $200,000, provided that the US government has not intervened. If they intervene, it will approach $500,000,” Dragosh said, saying there is a possibility of direct Bitcoin acquisitions through a “budget neutral” strategy.
The US is considering “many creative ways” to fund Bitcoin investments by reevaluating the US Treasury gold certificate from tariff revenue.
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“Structure” ETF inflow, institutional adoption extends Bitcoin cycle
The US-based Spot Bitcoin Exchange Trade Fund (ETF) surpasses all expectations in the first year of trading and exceeds record trading volumes as BlackRock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF has become the fastest growing ETF in history.
Dragosch said the first year is usually the “slowest” ETF, highlighting the launch of Gold ETFs.
“That alone means there will be an increase in flows in the second and third years. In terms of the four-year cycle of four-year cycle, this cycle means that these structural inflows will be extended.”
Bitcoin cycles could also be extended when US wirehouses begin to be exposed to Bitcoin and ETFs.
“In the US, the main distribution channels go through Wirehouse, essentially a large bank like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley.
Recruitment from US Wirehouses could result in “a huge amount of capital,” as it controls $10 trillion worth of customer assets, Dragosch added.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqemr3g8dai
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