A chart showing the “mutual tariffs” in which the United States is exhibited at the James Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House on April 2, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Alex Wong | Getty Images
US President Donald Trump submitted a “mutual tariff” rate Wednesday that more than 180 countries and territories face under his radical new trade policy.
The announcement has resulted in a fall in stocks and prompted investors to seek evacuation to assets that are perceived as safe.
Analysts have generally had a pessimistic view of the announcement, but some have even predicted an increased risk of a US recession
This is an edit of responses from experts and analysts.
Tai Hui, APAC Chief Market Strategist, JP Morgan Asset Management
“Today’s announcement could raise the average US tariff rate to a level not seen since the early 20th century. If these tariffs persist, US manufacturing is struggling to increase costs for consumers, which could have a significant impact on inflation.
“The magnitude of these tariffs raises concerns about growth risks. U.S. consumers may cut spending due to more expensive imports, and businesses may delay capital investment amid uncertainty regarding the full impact of tariffs and potential retaliation from trading partners.”
David Rosenberg, president and founder of Rosenberg Research
“There is no winner in the world trade war, and when people have to notice, if they hear this applause about how US consumers don’t take the brunt of it, it’s all going to be a foreign producer. Whenever they hear that, they roll their eyes.
And because much of it is sent to consumers, we have been in a price shock for months that is very important to the American household sector. ”
Anthony Raza, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, UOB Asset Management
“They came up with the most extreme numbers that we can’t even understand. From a perspective of how they think of these and timing, I think this was something that unfolded over the course of a year and was hoping that they could do it like negotiation time.
David Roche, Strategist, Quantum Strategist
“These tariffs are not transitional. They are at the heart of President Trump’s beliefs. They mark the transition from economics, not just globalization to isolationist and nationalist policies. The process continues for years and feels like decades.
Now, expect retaliation rather than negotiations between the EU (targeting US services) and China (focusing on US strategic and business interests). Rose garden tariffs solidify the bear market. They will not only cause us and the EU recession, but also a global stag. ”
Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, Amplifier
“Our rough calculations are that the announcement on April 2nd will provide the average US tariff rate at the above levels seen in the 1930s after Smoot/Holy tariffs, which increase the risk of a US recession by causing a further blow to the risk of a US recession and supply chain disruption and global growth.
“The risk of a recession in the US is probably around 40%, and depending on how important retaliation is and how countries like China respond with policy stimuli, we can boost global growth to 2% (from around 3% at present).
Tom Kenny, senior international economist at Ants
“The mutual tariffs announced today in the US are worse than expected. The effective tariff rate on imports of US goods is likely to rise to the 20-25% range, the highest since the early 1900s.
Inflation-indexed bonds yields are high, and stocks will be sold after the announcement, and the market believes these tariffs will undermine growth and increase inflation. Market pricing for federal funds refers to reducing the Federal Reserve cuts faster. ”
