important notes
Analysts say Bitcoin’s decline is a normal cooling effect after last year’s +122% surge. The U.S.-led sell-off pushed Coinbase premium negative, then quickly turned positive. The decline in open interest and price declines indicate futures unwinding rather than spot selling.
Bitcoin (BTC) price remains hovering around $89,000 as analysts argue that the current decline is within the bounds of a healthy cyclical correction rather than a full-blown crypto winter.
In a post on X, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balciunas said that Bitcoin has simply given up the surplus created after rising +122% last year. He added that even if 2025 ends flat or slightly lower, the asset will still gain an average of 50% a year.
“Assets, even stocks, are allowed to cool down from time to time. People overanalyze it,” Balciunas said.
Balciunas also denied claims that Bitcoin is similar to the tulip bubble. He said that while Tulip collapsed after a three-year frenzy, Bitcoin survived 17 years, six major crashes, regulatory pressures, exchange failures, halvings and global shocks.
He argued that many non-productive assets, from gold to rare art, retain their value, and that Bitcoin fits into that category without relying solely on euphoria, but added that durability is the only thing that sets it apart.
Yes, Bitcoin and Tulip are both unproductive assets. But so is gold, and so are Picasso paintings and rare stamps. Why not compare them to tulips? Not all assets need to be “productive” to have value. But even beyond that, Tulip was marked by euphoria and crashes. And that’s it.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 6, 2025
US activity puts pressure on Bitcoin in December
CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index shows that the recent collapse in Bitcoin prices primarily stemmed from the US-led sell-off in early December. Premiums sank into negative territory in late November and early December, historically a period of portfolio rebalancing and tax relief by U.S. financial institutions.
This pattern fits past cycles where December’s fall in premiums either caused a pause in the rally or exposed a period of stress. This year’s difference is due to a rapid recovery, with premiums returning to positive territory within days.
Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index |Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant said this shift often means selling pressure has run its course and U.S. demand has re-emerged. Whether Bitcoin stabilizes or falls again currently depends primarily on US liquidity, derivatives trends, and incoming flows.
Futures reset signal Derivatives cooling
Carmelo Aleman, another CryptoQuant analyst, pointed to a decline in open interest (OI) across all exchanges. He said prices and OI have fallen at the same time. This is not a sign of a physical selloff, but rather a sign that futures trading has ended, Aleman said.
Lower OI removes excess leverage from the system and reduces the false momentum created by short-term derivatives. He argued, as Balciunas argued earlier today, that this phase reflects a reset and is not the start of a bear market.
Bitcoin OI Chart |Source: CryptoQuant
Aleman also added that price increases combined with OI increases typically represent a weak leverage-driven rally devoid of real demand.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing fair and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, so we recommend that you verify the information yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Perth has gathered experience and expertise in the field after working with major media outlets in the crypto and financial world and living through bear and bull markets over the years. Palt is also the author of four self-published books.
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