Opinion: Joshua Chu, co-chair of Hong Kong Web3 Association
When you were young, you often felt disrespected because of your lack of experience. But our elders will simultaneously mourn us.
Bitcoin is just like youthful emerging technologies. The early years are full of uncertainty, but full of promises of endless possibilities. There is time to learn, adapt and grow.
But as we enter middle age, when we become blinded by early victory and increased awareness (or adoption – in the sense of technology), we begin to pursue success and wealth as our tunnel vision increases. This is exactly where Bitcoin found itself today, and is ultimately accepted by the institutions, a daily news story, each step has been praised, but expectations are also under pressure. This phase leads to urgency, risk, and uncontrolled panic.
As the horizon narrows, what once was an infinite opportunity, the moment just after the end becomes very sudden and dangerous.
The rapid rise in Bitcoin in 2025 is dealing with its own midlife crisis. The exponential growth of young people as an emerging technology is declining. Recently, CleanCore Solutions announced plans to jump on the Crypto Treasury Bandwagon in a pivot to become the Dogecoin Treasury Company, and its shares plummeted 60%.
The collapse shows that it raises investors’ skepticism about speculative cipherstints. This reflects the broader challenges faced by Bitcoin as it struggles to maintain momentum amid increasing market volatility.
Emergency questions regarding the response to its lifespan, value, and purpose demand. As with a good legacy plan, we recommend having a will.
What is Bitcoin’s shelf life?
Every technology has a life cycle. Bitcoin is no exception. Bitcoin remains a technology that is subject to the immutable laws of lifecycle dynamics. Bitcoin may have a bear run and a bull run, but the growth cycle is still beginning to shrink. To put numbers in perspective:
In the 2013 cycle, it grew at 310x
In the 2017 cycle, growth fell 143 times
In the 2021 cycle, growth rates increased 11 times
In the 2025 cycle, growth rate was just 2.1 times
Each new cycle is about a quarter of the previous cycle, indicating an astonishing pattern of geometric collapse.
According to academic mathematics statistics, Nasim Nicholas Taleb’s paper, Bitcoin, currency and vulnerability, his “bubble model” theory is that price growth cannot rise indefinitely on non-two assets.
Related: Owning Full Bitcoin in 2025 – How rare is it?
When assets become essentially “faith-based” assets, market reality and discipline ultimately reduce such momentum. Ultimately, the multiplier is submerged below 1 and switch from the growth model to the reduced model. Economic or speculative implementation cannot escape the natural growth cycle.
I need to ask a question: Is Bitcoin approaching the edge of a cliff? Are the explosive young people in Bitcoin giving way to the natural burnout that all technology has to face in the end, or is there a second wind and the end still showing up on the horizon?
Cryptocurrency as a “faith-based” asset
Joe Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum, once clarified his vision of Ethereum’s values based on his “faith in the Ethereum blockchain.” In an interview with comedian Ronnie Chien on the 2017 Daily Show, Rubin pivoted that when people believe in cryptocurrency, this factor alone is “snowballing to what society thinks is valuable.”
In the same interview, he suggested that in doing so (having faith), it “similar to the US dollar.” His views seemed to indicate that money at its core depends solely on collective beliefs and trust. However, this view, unlike Bitcoin, overlooked the important announcing of the Fiat currency, which is supported by monetary policy, taxation, fiscal measures, and the government’s default on debt, austerity measures and other such.
Faith-based assets lack all such value. While the value of faith-based assets comes from market demand and collective beliefs solely, Fiat’s fallback is an intrinsic value backed by economic structure.
Bitcoin transcends to, at least to some extent, just another asset. In the old tales, Bitcoin was portrayed as a hedge against inflation, a guardian from government control (at least the pre-adjusted era). However, reality is constantly changing.
Pivoting to blockchain as infrastructure from investing in Bitcoin-as-a-product
It is usually the infrastructure that supports the product, not the product that can withstand actual time testing. MySpace and Netscape may have disappeared, but infrastructure like the Internet has stood the test of time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbyvwy_br7q
In many ways, Bitcoin started out as an innovative product, designed and deployed to challenge the traditional financial system. The rise of that meteor attracted millions and brought promising rescue in financial freedom.
But like other technology products, it faces natural limitations. Even blockchain, the underlying Bitcoin technology, is based on the principles of encryption.
In contrast, blockchain infrastructure refers to the physical and operational components that ensure that blockchain networks function at scale. These include network nodes (including full and validator nodes), network protocols, and data storage systems that maintain and support the ecosystem.
Just like the midlife crisis, Bitcoin has reached a vital intersection. Buying ETFs and facilities is similar to graduating from Bitcoin’s university to middle management, but the decline in volatility of Bitcoin is also attributed to early explosive growth, suggesting maturity, if not contraction.
Recognizing this trend, OG investors have sold from Bitcoin and reinvested in new tokens like Ethereum or moved to infrastructure for a long-term strategy. However, both trends indicate the future of Bitcoin.
This transition highlights the fundamental truth. Individual technologies, no matter how revolutionary they may be, ultimately have a finite lifespan, but durable infrastructures live longer than product counterparts.
For investors, innovators and policymakers, our own receding hairline and waistline increase will serve as a reminder that a lifecycle perspective is essential to navigating Bitcoin’s own middle-age stage.
And perhaps before pitching Bitcoin Treasury plans in a 20-year lockup period, consider this: do you have electronic devices over 41 in your home? Were you born 41 years ago? Bitcoin as a technology that began with Genesis Block in 2009 was 41 years ago when locked tokens became fully accessible. Reflecting the Bitcoin lifecycle is essential for making informed and strategic decisions in this rapidly evolving world.
Opinion: Joshua Chu, co-chair of Hong Kong Web3 Association.
This article is for general informational purposes and is not intended to be considered legal or investment advice, and should not be done. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or express Cointregraph’s views and opinions.
