Rhetoric or Reality?
President Trump has not provided specifics regarding his ambitious “whole-of-government” initiative aimed at deporting up to 20 million individuals, a figure that far exceeds the actual number of undocumented people in the U.S. This proposal has been prominently featured in related campaign ads, with Republican candidates asserting that mass deportation could open up housing for Americans and reduce prices. However, the vast majority of economists disagree with this notion. Additionally, the plan has raised logistical concerns, with some experts describing the potential costs as “astronomical.”
The doubts do not end there; home builders are increasingly uncertain about Trump’s commitment to delivering on this promise.
You won’t be able to recruit people to build houses because you’ll lose so many people.
Stan Marek, CEO of Marek Family Company
According to Stan Marek, the CEO of Marek Family of Companies in Texas, “They don’t believe it will actually happen. We won’t have the workforce needed to construct homes because we’re set to lose so many people.”
Brian Dunn, the senior vice president of Big D Construction in Arizona, also voiced skepticism, stating that the idea of expelling such a large number of individuals is “almost laughable.” He mentioned that those in the industry are assessing how much this proposal is fueling political anxiety.
Despite President Trump’s tendency to propose controversial ideas that often lack genuine follow-through—like the infamous suggestion to purchase Greenland—he has reshaped political discussions, particularly in immigration. This has included actions like reallocating Pentagon funds for the construction of a border wall, instituting travel bans from several Muslim-majority nations, and separating migrant children from their families.
Trump’s use of racially charged language emphasizes deportation on the campaign trail and includes claims that thousands of immigrants are predisposed to violence “because it’s in their genes.” Recently, he accused immigrant gangs of “invading” U.S. cities like Aurora, Colorado, combatting local authorities who he claims need federal assistance without pursuing widespread deportations. Still, public opinion polls indicate substantial backing for deporting individuals who entered the U.S. unlawfully.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Taylor Rogers stated, “President Trump’s mass deportation strategy not only promises to enhance community safety but will safeguard American citizens in the long run,” referring to the financial burden placed on taxpayers if undocumented immigrants remain in the country and access social services.
In a response to the discourse surrounding genetics, Trump campaign spokesperson Caroline Levitt clarified that his remarks were directed at “murderers, not immigrants.”
Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), expressed significant reservations about the deportation initiative but emphasized the need for builders to have fewer regulatory obstacles and improved access to funding. “We need to engage in a serious and timely dialogue regarding immigration policy and reform,” Tobin remarked.
We need to have a serious conversation about immigration policy and reform in this country, and we cannot delay it any longer.
Jim Tobin, CEO, National Association of Home Builders
“The conversation on immigration has reached a critical point,” Tobin said. He emphasized, “We need to engage in meaningful discussions about immigration reform, and procrastination is no longer an option.”
Marek, a long-time advocate for providing undocumented workers with legal avenues to contribute to the construction industry, noted that overdue reforms have been in the pipeline for decades. He highlighted the challenges posed by an economy driven by low-wage labor, which often leads to the exploitation of undocumented workers, stressing the necessity for legitimate employment opportunities. “We need these workers; they’ve been instrumental in building our homes for three decades,” he stated. “Losing them would be detrimental to our companies, our industries, and our economy.”
The Math Isn’t There
Research indicates that immigrant construction workers play a vital role in keeping housing costs manageable. A December 2022 study by the George W. Bush Institute and Southern Methodist University found that U.S. metropolitan areas with a growing immigrant workforce also enjoy the lowest construction costs.
According to the analysis, “Cities in the Sunbelt like Raleigh, Nashville, Houston, and San Antonio continue to face challenges with affordable housing even as the demand for homes surges.”
Currently, the construction industry is experiencing a labor shortage. Ron Hetrick, a senior labor economist at Rightcast, argued that the repercussions of mass deportations would be catastrophic, stating, “It would greatly disrupt the industry and lead to substantial declines in housing construction.”
Over the past decade, the number of employees in the sector has climbed, surpassing 8 million—an increase of over 1 million since the pandemic, as reported by payroll processor ADP. However, Hetrick pointed out that younger generations show little interest in pursuing careers in this field, while the current workforce is aging; the average age of a home builder is 57.
Hetrick noted that while many undocumented workers have settled in the U.S. for over a decade, national deportation policies could trigger a wave of voluntary departures among those with legal status. “This has already unfolded in Florida,” he observed.
The Past as a Prologue
Last year, Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, implemented measures aimed at dissuading employers from hiring undocumented workers. Social media footage captured many migrant workers hastily leaving the state even before these rules took effect, resulting in deserted construction sites.
Luciano, a carpenter originally from Mexico who has been in the U.S. for two decades without legal status, remarked, “These policies show a fundamental misunderstanding of the industry’s needs.”
A construction worker, who requested anonymity, expressed the unique challenges faced by his colleagues, stating, “No one else works under conditions like we do.” He elaborated in Spanish, noting that the laborers often endure 70-hour workweeks under both rain and heat, stating, “There’s time to start, but no time to finish.”
Taylor reflected on the anxiety felt by Florida contractors during a recent statewide enforcement of immigration laws. He comforted them with, “Just hang in there for six months,” highlighting the ongoing need for workers, suggesting a lack of sufficient regulation.
Republican Rep. Rick Ross, who supported the legislation, later admitted that Florida was not ready for the disruption caused by the law. He referred to the situation by stating it was “not as severe as it seems,” urging immigrant workers to remain in the state.
Taylor noted that some workers came back after realizing that the enforcement of the policy was more lax than anticipated, remarking that “things feel more stable now.”
There was no response from Mr. DeSantis’ office regarding inquiries about the situation.
Dunn, previously an executive in a construction management firm in Tempe, recalled the consequences following Arizona’s implementation of strict immigration laws in 2010. He remarked, “A lot of individuals left and didn’t return,” as the law took effect.
When much of the legislation was overturned in 2012, Dunn pointed out that “Arizona developed a poor image” in comparison to other states that catered to workers more liberally. He noted how this reputation influenced employment dynamics.
Dunn openly supports Vice President Kamala Harris, although opinions among other construction industry leaders seem to vary. Malek, a self-declared lifelong Republican, opted not to share his voting record but mentioned that “many Republicans did not vote for Trump.”
Taylor praised President Trump’s efficiency in achieving results, without explicitly endorsing any candidate. He emphasized, “There are numerous economic challenges we face daily that are not related to immigration reform,” and reiterated his stance of not being one to back a singular policy.
