Recent data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has achieved a notable milestone, outperforming the S&P 500 index in 50% of U.S. trading sessions over the past 90 days. This marks a significant shift after a prolonged period characterized by more losing sessions than winning ones.
Key Observations:
- Bitcoin’s performance surpassed that of the S&P 500 in half of the trading sessions tracked by Glassnode.
- This 90-session measurement indicates a positive shift, considering Bitcoin’s win rate had not exceeded 50% since March 2025.
- The S&P 500 has historically increased by an average of 10.7% in the three months following midterm elections when Democrats gained control of both houses of Congress under Republican presidents, in a trend observed since 1922.
Bitcoin Shows Recovery Against the S&P 500
According to the findings from Glassnode, Bitcoin has managed to outperform the S&P 500 in half of its trading sessions within the observed 90-session period. These results signal an encouraging uptick compared to the recent trend, wherein Bitcoin experienced a predominance of losses.
“For most of the previous year, Bitcoin’s performance was lackluster; it lost more sessions than it gained,” Glassnode noted in its latest newsletter titled “The Week on Chain.” The recent improvement to a win rate above 50% is seen as a potential turning point. The company explains,
“A return to an even split would end a long period of underperformance. If the win rate increases above 50% and remains there, it would signal that Bitcoin is regaining its strength against stocks.”
Session-by-session returns for BTC/USD versus S&P 500. Source: Glassnode
Furthermore, Glassnode indicated that Bitcoin’s average profit per session is showing a slight edge over the S&P 500’s average gains, reinforcing its competitive position.
Democratic Midterm Elections and Stock Market Performance
The recent victory of the Democratic Party in the U.S. midterm elections has garnered attention for its historical implications on stock market performance.
According to insights from Capriol Investments, when Democrats secured both congressional houses under Republican presidencies, the S&P 500 has historically thrived. Analyzing data from the past 26 midterm elections (excluding the recent ones), Democrats emerged victorious seven times in such scenarios, leading to an average S&P 500 increase of 10.7% over the subsequent three months.
The average rises become even more pronounced over time: 17.5% after six months and 15.5% after one year.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriol, remarked on these trends, stating,
“There has never been a better election result for the market.”
The performance of the S&P 500 following midterm elections results. Source: Charles Edwards on X.com
Moreover, current data from TradingView highlights an increased correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, with a 20-day rolling correlation coefficient of 0.63. This positive momentum has been particularly significant since August, coinciding with increased bond-buying activities by the U.S. Treasury, propelling both cryptocurrencies and stocks upward.
BTC/USD one-day chart alongside S&P 500 correlation data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
