According to Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at RealVision, Bitcoin may be entering the late stages of a bear market and the downward momentum may be starting to slow.
“I think we’re getting past most of the bear market behavior,” Coutts told Cointelegraph in an interview on Trade Secrets. “Obviously the bear market is not over yet, but you know, I think we’re at least getting closer to the second half of the year.”
Coutts described Bitcoin’s current price trend as a “classic bear market,” with Bitcoin trading around $63,000, about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100.
He noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by about 50% compared to the previous market cycle, suggesting the current economic downturn may not be as severe as past bear markets.
Bitcoin has gained 4.45% in the past 30 days. (Coin Market Cap)
But Coutts cautioned that markets rarely follow past patterns so closely. “They’re just doing their own thing in a way, and all the trend indicators are clearly bearish at the moment,” Coutts said.
On the bright side, Coutts said there are early technical signs that the selling pressure is easing.
“We’re starting to see a bullish divergence on a longer time frame in terms of momentum. So this just indicates an acceleration, or a deceleration of negative momentum, but it doesn’t mean we’re out of this bear market at all from a technical standpoint,” Coutts said.
While many market participants blamed Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter weakness on tight global liquidity conditions, Coutts said weakening on-chain fundamentals also played a role.
“So on-chain demand, which has been steadily driving up prices and is somewhat correlated to things like global liquidity and business cycles, started to deteriorate as well.”
Related: Bitcoin ETF ends ‘most overwhelming’ $2.7 billion decline amid new $85 million in net outflows
Jamie Coutts doubts Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030
Coutts was cautious when asked if he agreed with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood’s long-term predictions that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.
“The model I was working on produced about a million copies by 2032 or 2033. It’s a function like how much money needs to be printed between now and then,” he said.
“I feel more comfortable predicting that Bitcoin will reach around $200,000 to $250,000 within the next two to three years,” he said. Outside of that period, he added, “it’s very difficult to say.”
“I think it’s going to be interesting to see what AI brings to this equation. You know, more and more wallets are being spun up for agents, but what will they essentially store their value in? Will they make the same decisions as humans?” he said.
Regarding long-term risks to Bitcoin’s reputation, Coutts said the community needs to take more decisive action by 2027 to address the potential threats posed by quantum computing.
“Unless there is some really solid movement on this, this will become more and more talked about as a network issue, because as much as everything is at risk from quantum, Bitcoin is a decentralized network. It will be five years before any major protocol upgrades are actually implemented.”
Coutts said Bitcoin developers are on the “wrong side” of ignoring concerns about the potential threat of quantum computing to the network.
Feature: Bitcoin’s Quantum Dilemma — Bigger Blocks or STARK Proof?
