Analysts see room for ETH to rise ahead of Gramsterdam upgrade

The increase in spot trading as leverage declines suggests that long-term buyers may be replacing speculative traders.

Ethereum (ETH) is trading nearly 65% ​​below its all-time high, with its near-yearly lows in the spotlight, even as the largest network upgrade since the merge is scheduled to take place in the coming weeks.

But analysts tracking this setup say the gap between weak social interest and stable on-chain usage is the kind of disconnect that often occurs right before a sudden move in cryptocurrencies.

Gramsterdam approaches as on-chain data remains strong

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According to them, the upcoming Gramsterdam upgrade could be a major catalyst given that it could triple Ethereum’s gas limit and reduce transaction fees by about 78%. It is also said that throughput could increase to around 10,000 transactions per second.

“Big trigger. Minimal attention,” the market watcher wrote, citing $1,754 as the ETH level to watch. A sustained rise above that area could pave the way to $2,440, they said, but failure to sustain support could send the world’s second-largest crypto asset back to $880.

At the time of writing, data from CoinGecko shows that ETH is trading just a few dollars below the resistance level set by Wise Crypto, and has fallen only slightly (about 1%) in 24 hours, but is still up nearly 7% over the past week and about 3% over the past 30 days.

This quiet backdrop sits alongside some unusual exchange data shared by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, who stated that Binance’s 30-day ETH open interest fluctuation fell to -594,000 ETH at the beginning of the week, marking the largest contraction since August 2024. During the same period, OKX’s ETH spot volume rose to $2.09 billion, 49% higher than this year’s high recorded in February. 5.

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According to Taha, this combination is noteworthy. This is because the leverage flush associated with rising spot trading volumes likely means speculators are leaving the market while spot buyers continue to accumulate ETH, rather than a significant retreat from the asset.

Traders remain cautious while executives talk about cycles

Ethereum has been rejected three times this week at $1,800, but ConsenSys co-founder Joseph Rubin said Wednesday that the “summer of Ethereum love is gaining momentum,” pointing to newly launched governing bodies like Ethlab, which works with the Ethereum Foundation, and citing the network’s 11-year uptime as attractive to institutions.

Analyst Michael Van de Poppe struck a similar tone over the weekend, claiming that “the worst is over for ETH” after the token posted its first-ever third consecutive quarterly loss of more than 20%. He said the probability of a fourth consecutive period of decline is statistically low and pointed to the pending CLARITY Act as a potential liquidity driver.