What should humanity do if an asteroid is on a collision course with the moon? Why not try to keep the space rocks out of the way before they hit? Would you wipe it out with a nuclear explosion?
These are questions investigated in recent papers from more than 12 researchers, including several or more NASA scientists. And they are not purely hypothetical: the asteroid known as the 2024 YR4 is estimated to have a 4% chance of hitting the moon in 2032.
Such space collisions “can “threate astronauts and spacecraft in low-Earth orbit, perhaps, at a height of up to 1,000 times the background level in just a few days,” the researchers wrote on a paper uploaded on September 15th to the preprint website Arxiv, but not yet peer-reviewed.
To avoid creating that potentially dangerous debris field, one option is to nucleate an asteroid or cause what scientists call “robust mess” before they reach the moon.
Queue references for the “Armageddon” movie.
However, the plan carries many major risks as it has not been tested to destroy asteroids using nuclear explosions.
Various important properties regarding the Asteroid 2024 YR4 are unknown, including its mass. This is important in understanding how to properly “destroy” without causing more problems.
“If an explosion isn’t enough, just make a debris field anyway,” said Julie Brissett, interim director of the Florida Space Institute.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected in December by Chile’s Asteroid Land Impact Tra Store Alt System Station. NASA estimates it is large enough to be considered a “city killer” and measured up to 220 feet in diameter, as it can cause serious damage to cities or regions on the planet.
Experts initially believe that there is a small chance that asteroids will hit our planet, and the probability of such an impact was estimated at 3% earlier this year. However, collisions with Earth were later ruled out.
Because Earth is thought to be clear, the asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon with an estimated 4.3% chance.
The authors of a recent paper proposed to launch a mission to conduct asteroid reconnaissance. They then proposed, built an explosive device, and then deployed it to Spacelock.
Alternatively, if a nuclear explosion is too extreme to destroy an asteroid, researchers will explain in detail how it goes out of the way.
NASA has that experience. In its first test in 2022, its DART probe intentionally changed its orbit by crashing into a small space rock known as Dimorphos. According to NASA, the operation performed 6.8 million miles from Earth, reducing the Dimorphos path in space by 33 minutes.
However, for the deflection to succeed, Brissett said it would need to know the mass of the asteroid 2024 YR4.
In response to an NBC News investigation into NASA’s recent paper, Kelly Fast, the agency’s Planetary Defense Officer, said in a statement that there are no plans to deflect the asteroid or otherwise interfere with it.
But she said she plans to study it early next year using a James Webb Space Telescope. Findings may provide better insight into its trajectory path.
“If observed, additional data could improve our knowledge of where the asteroid is in December 2032,” Fast said, “it could reduce the impact probability to 0%.”
Even if you can carry out space missions like those mentioned in the paper, there are political considerations to navigate.
There are no astronauts or long-term habitats on the moon, but that may not necessarily be the case. China, for example, says it aims to land astronauts on the moon by 2030. Chinese officials say they could build a nuclear power plant on the moon to power lunar bases that they plan to work in collaboration with Russia.
The US plans to launch regular missions on the moon before NASA finally ventures to Mars. However, NASA’s future mission and priorities are suggesting to remain in Flux in key personnel cuts and NASA’s budget blueprint in President Donald Trump’s NASA budget blueprint, cutting over $6 billion from the budget.
Detonating space nuclear weapons could create tension in the fast-growing space races of the US, China and other spacecraft countries, with potential conflicts over which countries and space agencies will lead or participate in the project, Brissett said.
“It’s probably a country with the technical ability to do that,” she said, “I probably narrowed it down to three or four, but would they want to work together?”
