As Thanksgiving approaches, a series of weather systems are anticipated to bring rain and snow to regions across the Midwest, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, coinciding with one of the busiest travel days of the year.
Currently, over 25 million individuals are under advisories from the National Weather Service due to potential winter storms, which include warnings for wind, flooding, and icy conditions.
On Monday, severe thunderstorms and rain are predicted for areas in the south-central Plains, with flood warnings spanning from northwest Texas to central Oklahoma affecting around 4 million residents.
Forecasters at NBC News have indicated that extreme weather could produce winds up to 60 mph, thunderstorms, and even the risk of tornadoes in parts of West Texas, including cities like Abilene, Wichita Falls, and Midland.
The shifting weather patterns are projected to impact approximately 7 million people in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, as reported by NBC News meteorologists.
Rain and Snow On the Horizon
A lengthy atmospheric river originating in the Pacific Northwest is set to deliver substantial rainfall—up to 5 inches—and significant snowfall, with a total of at least 3 inches forecasted for regions of Oregon and Northern California starting Monday, according to federal experts and researchers.
The Western Weather and Water Extremes Center in San Diego has instituted a classification system (AR1 to AR5) to predict the effects of atmospheric rivers, paralleling methods used for hurricanes. They have indicated this weather front could arrive as an AR3 or AR4 event from Tuesday through Friday, leading to heavy precipitation.
In addition, snowfall is anticipated in parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming as the atmosphere continues moving across the country after impacting the Pacific Northwest, according to the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center.
A low-pressure system is expected to move through the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast following the atmospheric river, ushering in colder temperatures and snow as Thanksgiving approaches.
According to forecasters, this upper-level low-pressure system will form over the Great Lakes and Northeast later this week, leading to cooler temperatures and possibly freezing rain from the Ohio Valley extending to the East Coast, along with early season snow in the central Appalachian highlands and the interior Northeast.
Another colder and wetter system is anticipated to reach the East Coast later this week, bringing rain and snow to various regions including the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.
Meteorologists have indicated the potential for a significant winter storm to develop over the mid-Atlantic and southern New England, resulting in a drop in temperatures by around 10 degrees, with rain and some snow forecasted on Wednesday and Thursday, possibly leading to accumulation.
Predictions suggest that snowfall may mainly occur in the interior and mountains of the Northeast, where drought and wildfires have been prevalent this fall, particularly in states like New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
Accumulations of up to 6 inches of snow are possible, as a cool air mass moves in, enhancing conditions for snow accumulation in the Great Lakes, interior Northeast, and especially in the central Appalachian highlands, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
Thanksgiving Travel Outlook
While federal weather forecasters typically refrain from making long-range predictions beyond seven days, they are optimistic regarding the forecast for Thanksgiving week, including Black Friday and the following Sunday, which is one of the busiest shopping periods of the year. The expectation is for cooler weather and rain, alongside the potential for snow in elevated areas of the East Coast.
The Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for a 6- to 10-day period indicates above-average rainfall for several states, including California, the Pacific Northwest, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Michigan during the early part of the holiday week.
Forecasters also anticipate increased rainfall in the San Francisco Bay Area, while the remainder of the country could experience near-normal or below-normal conditions.
Travel trends indicate that this Thanksgiving could witness a continuation of post-pandemic travel increases. American Airlines has projected nearly 8.3 million travelers over the holiday period, a record high compared to last year’s estimated 6.5 million passengers.
Moreover, the National Retail Federation has noted expectations for around 183 million shoppers to visit physical stores during the holiday week.
While it remains premature to determine the potential impact of severe weather on travel and shopping plans, the approaching systems warrant close attention.
