WASHINGTON — He is the biggest draw in American politics, a sitting president who has created a movement loyal to him for more than a decade.
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He may be the most polarizing figure in American politics, now presiding over rising inflation and a war in the Middle East with no clear end in sight.
Donald Trump’s ability to both attract and repel American voters creates a dilemma that Republicans are grappling with heading into November’s midterm elections. The question is: Should he campaign aggressively to maintain his party’s slim parliamentary majority, or should he stand back so that his presence does not boomerang to the people he is trying to elect?
There are no easy answers, as interviews with 19 current and former Republican politicians and political operatives reveal. Midterm elections are often referendums on the president. Because that’s the reality, some Republicans argue it makes no sense to try to hide President Trump until the vote is counted.
“They really need him,” former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said, referring to congressional Republicans. “They need his money. They need him to increase turnout.”
“This is about removing our bases. That’s a huge deal,” said Jeff Kaufman, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party. “No one does a better job of energizing Republican voters than Trump.”
Complicating matters is the fact that Trump’s electoral coalition, which he won in 2024, is cracking. According to exit polls that year, he won 46% of independent voters, compared to 49% who supported Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. An Economist/YouGov poll this week found that just 25% of independents said they had a favorable view of Trump, compared to 66% who had an unfavorable view.
One House Republican in the race said he had no plans to campaign with Trump or feature him prominently in ads. He also said some Republicans are questioning the National Republican Congressional Committee’s decision to put Trump at the forefront and name its midterm election program “MAGA Majority.”
“I received some text messages from some vulnerable members saying, ‘Well, I don’t know if this is the best strategy,'” said the member, who spoke freely on condition of anonymity. “If you look at some of their comments, you can tell they’re nervous.”
One state Republican Party chair acknowledged that President Trump’s presence “could be tough.”
“I think he can help with things like turnout, but there’s also room for things like that to backfire,” the person said. “It has to be the right audience, but I think the people here will be fine if that doesn’t happen.”
Voters, at least, are likely to see Trump go into full campaign mode in September as he headlines an unusual Republican convention aimed at boosting his midterm election prospects. The Republican National Committee changed its rules this year to hold its convention separate from the multi-day contest it holds every four years to nominate its presidential candidate.
“Republicans across the country are united behind President Trump and his winning policies,” RNC Chairman Joe Gruters said in a statement. “Democrats remain obsessed with defending their failed record, but voters know which party will deliver. Republicans have the energy, the message, and the strongest voting power in politics, with President Trump leading the way.”
Still, uncertainty remains among Republican officials as to whether Mr. Trump will actually try to rush in and take Congress back into Republican hands.
He has a myriad of interests that have little to do with his party’s electoral prospects, including the White House Ballroom project and the Ultimate Fighting Championship contest to be held on the South Lawn next month.
One Republican consultant told NBC News that the White House has not yet shared its larger plans for the midterm elections or what candidates should expect from Trump.
“I wish they had a plan,” a consultant with a client on House races said of the White House politicians. “They give very little guidance to congressmen and senators about what’s going to happen. If they have a plan, they just haven’t told anyone.”
Another Republican strategist said the White House needs to do more to tout its accomplishments. A photo op with a DoorDash delivery worker who showed up to the Oval Office last month with fast food helped draw attention to President Trump’s “tipping tax-free” policy, but it’s not enough, the person said.
The strategist said, “President Trump’s strategy so far seems to have been “Democrats are crazy.” “He may be right, but it doesn’t necessarily sell, especially when gas prices are $4.50. The message has to be about how do we leverage what we’ve already done?”
Asked for comment, a White House aide sent a list of various states visited by President Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and members of the Cabinet, showing “how the administration is strategically traveling across the country ahead of the midterm elections.”
Trump has visited Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas this year, according to a White House tally.
Trump doesn’t like to travel much, but he has indicated he is willing to travel to stop Democrats from taking back Congress.
In a recent phone interview with NBC News, he tied his party’s fate to the Save America Act, a bill being considered in the Senate that would require proof of citizenship for voter registration.
“I’m voting, and the voters love me,” Trump said. “In many cases, they won’t love the Republican Party unless we pass the SAVE America Act. There’s only so much I can do.”
So far this year, President Trump has made 12 trips to various parts of the country to promote his policies, according to an NBC News analysis, the same number of trips he made at a similar point in his first term ahead of the 2018 midterm elections.
That year, he dramatically increased his travel a month after Election Day. In October 2018, he spent 21 out of 31 days on the road, leading 16 political rallies, three policy events and at least four fundraisers. In the five days leading up to the election, he attended 10 more rallies.
When it was all over, Democrats regained the majority in the House, but Republicans kept the Senate. Democrats impeached Trump twice in the next three years. He was acquitted in both cases by the Senate.
President Trump’s motivation for meeting that frenetic schedule is what would happen if Democrats took control of the House. Democrats, who have the power to issue subpoenas and investigate Mr. Trump and his Cabinet, will be in a good position to rein in Mr. Trump’s policies.
“We have to win the midterm elections, because if we don’t win the midterm elections, they’re going to find a reason to impeach me,” Trump told Congressional Republicans in January. “I will be impeached.”
Vance, while not as popular as his boss, could fill a void in the campaign. Vance is scheduled to visit Maine on Thursday to talk about his efforts to fight fraud, the latest in a series of visits to House battleground districts to boost Republican candidates.
Mr. Vance represents Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where former Gov. Paul LePage, who is opposed to the Republican nomination, will face the winner of next month’s Democratic primary. The state is also home to the Senate elections that will determine control of the Senate. Republican incumbent Susan Collins faces a serious challenge from her likely Democratic challenger, Graham Platner.
Vance’s events are usually intentionally smaller than Trump’s large rallies, a recognition that no one will lift Trump up. For example, when the vice president visited Des Moines, Iowa, last week, several hundred people gathered at a manufacturer’s warehouse. And last month’s Turning Point USA event, which featured Vance as the headliner, drew attention for its empty seats inside the University of Georgia Arena.
In an interview with NewsNation, a Turning Point spokesperson blamed the lower-than-expected turnout on a “prank” by “left-wing” groups who insisted on free tickets to keep seats from filling.
Republicans’ control over the Congressional majority is tenuous. Democrats can take over the House majority by winning just three seats. In the Senate, he would need to win four seats to break Vance’s tie-breaking vote.
If history is any guide, Republicans may be in for a tough time on the night of Nov. 3, regardless of whether President Trump campaigns aggressively or not. The incumbent president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections. The only question is how many? Republican President George W. Bush called the party’s defeat in the 2006 midterm elections “shocking.” Democrat Barack Obama called the party’s setback in 2010 a “shocking event.”
The situation is even tougher for Republicans, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, with 14 House Republicans voting in what is considered a close race, compared to just four Democrats.
The wild card is the redistricting wars that have taken place thus far. President Trump has called on Republican state legislatures to draw new maps to give his party more seats, sparking protests in blue states such as California.
But recent court victories have given Republicans an advantage.
Before leaving for a trip to China on Tuesday, President Trump told reporters that Democrats “have spent years redrawing districts, and now we have a shot at it and it looks like we’re going to win a lot of seats, and that’s a good thing.”
Steve Bannon, a senior White House aide during President Trump’s first term, expects Republicans to maintain the House majority but believes they will lose the Senate. Bannon said President Trump’s political base is prepared to punish Senate Republican leader John Thune of South Dakota for failing to pass the SAVE America Act.
But Bannon also said the Iran war was a costly distraction from economic issues.
“I’m concerned about whether we can end this war and focus on the economy,” Bannon said in an interview. “A major turnaround in the economy has clearly been hampered by this war, and it has to end. It’s time to end this problem, bring everyone home, and focus on domestic issues.”
A question that has long vexed incumbent presidents is where exactly to go to maximize a party’s chances during midterm elections. At a similar point in 2006, Bush’s approval ratings had fallen to the mid-30s, about the same as Trump’s. Like Trump, he was caught up in a Middle East war of his own making.
Ahead of that year’s midterm elections, “Bush campaigned in places like Utah, which are highly reliable Republican states,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who worked in the Bush White House. “I’m not going to go to a place where I’m just helping eliminate Democrats and independent voters who don’t like me.”
“At the end of the day, the challenge for Republicans is that Democrats are very motivated and Republicans are unmotivated,” he added. “Trump can help with the latter, but he can hurt with the former.”
