President Trump’s tariffs contribute to rising U.S. beef prices

President Donald Trump has blamed meatpackers and U.S. cattle ranchers for soaring beef prices, but tariffs on beef, feed, farm equipment and machinery from Brazil, Australia, New Zealand and Uruguay have all added to the spike.

The United States is a major buyer of beef exports from Australia, Brazil, and New Zealand.

Brazil is the world’s second largest beef producer and the world’s largest beef exporter.

Brazilian beef exports tracked by Panjiva fell sharply in July and August after multiple tariffs imposed tiered tariffs totaling 76.4% on Brazilian beef. President Trump imposed 50% tariffs on many Brazilian products in July. Beef exports have found a new home and are being directed to other markets such as China.

Beef exports to the US from Australia, New Zealand and Uruguay also fell due to the tariffs.

The drop in exports has reduced supplies, adding to pressure on the already strained U.S. beef supply chain.

“If you impose a 50% tariff on a major supplier like Brazil, importers may continue to buy and pass on the costs, or they may stop buying, but that means less supply to meet demand,” said Dan Anthony, president of Trade Partnership Worldwide, an economic research firm. “In any case, prices are expected to rise, especially if new tariffs are also imposed on imports from Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay and other major supplier countries,” he added.

The latest Consumer Price Index report for September released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices for various raw beef products rose 12% to 18% year over year.

The compounding impact of the tariffs comes as the U.S. cattle herd nears its lowest level in 75 years and consumer demand for beef grows.

Ranchers are having trouble growing their herds because drought has reduced the amount of grassland available to feed their herds, making it more expensive to buy feed. Some imported fertilizers face double-digit tariffs, increasing the cost of growing crops used as feed (corn, soybeans).

Tariffs on essential goods such as steel and aluminum are also raising the cost of farm equipment (tractors, grain bins) and repairs.

All of these additional costs take money out of ranchers’ and farmers’ coffers and use it to invest in their operations.

“We’re in one of the toughest cattle cycles in history,” said James Clement III, a sixth-generation Texas rancher. “Our pipeline of future cattle supplies is minimal, and even at today’s prices, ranchers cannot speed up the process of rebuilding the national herd. It will take time, grass and rain.”

Replacement heifers have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years.

Ranchers say it can take years to see a profit from heifer purchases.

“The fundamentals are tough, the runway is long, and even the slightest shock will make an already fragile rebuild even more difficult,” Clement said. “This is a foreign concept to many other industries where production can be ramped up or down in a matter of weeks,” he added.

One of the biggest headwinds holding back investment is the current political environment.

“Producers are starting to reconsider whether they should keep heifers or take today’s funding, as the uncertainty increases risk for ranchers who want to keep or purchase heifers to rebuild their herds,” Clement said.

President Trump further frustrated ranchers in October when he announced that as part of a deal with Argentina, the country would export beef to the United States to help lower beef prices, but the National Cattle and Beef Association said this would harm rural America, a comment that led to a decline in cattle futures prices.

“The United States already produces higher quality beef than ever before, so we don’t need Argentine beef,” Clement said. “The expansion of Argentine quotas in our market will amount to less than half of 1%, about one additional hamburger per person, but it is far from changing policy,” he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently acknowledged that cattle numbers are in decline and announced a series of initiatives that it hopes will encourage people to become cattle farmers.

The White House has increased its affordability message in recent days following election losses across the country, with Trump administration officials saying measures are planned to lower the prices of some food items such as bananas and coffee that are not made in the United States. The tariff elimination plan, which the government announced Thursday has agreed to, includes a group of coffee and banana producing countries, including Ecuador and Guatemala.

“It’s politically easy to impose tariffs on foreign competitors to protect domestic producers, but consumers usually end up paying the cost,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners. “Then demand will shrink and people will eat chicken instead, and domestic producers will end up not being better off,” he said.

While many ranchers sit on the sidelines waiting for economic conditions to improve and incentives to expand their herds, Clement is investing in his ranch and continues to buy heifers to expand his operation.

“Cows are a great long-term investment and ranching is a great life,” he said.

In addition to climate and feed costs, U.S. ranchers are concerned about the potential return of the New World spiny maggot. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins led the USDA’s largest trade mission to Mexico to discuss measures to combat NWS.

Parasitic flies lay eggs in wounds of warm-blooded animals. The larva then hatches from the egg and feeds on the animal by burrowing into its tissues. If detected early, sick animals can be treated and survive. Human cases are rare but can be painful and require medical attention. Although the parasite was successfully eradicated from the United States in 1966, it was discovered that some cattle in Mexico were infected with the parasite, and all imports of Mexican beef were halted.

These supply chain challenges are adding to pressure on beef prices.

“By remaining steady and calm in the face of all the challenges ranchers have always faced, we will adapt to changing markets and the New World screwworm, just as ranchers have always done,” Clement said.