A “We’re Hiring” sign in the window of a Denny’s restaurant on November 19, 2025 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Radle | Getty Images
The pace of layoffs has accelerated over the past four weeks, with the U.S. labor market showing signs of further weakening, payroll firm ADP reported on Tuesday.
As part of the latest information it is providing, ADP said private companies have lost an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the past four weeks. This is an acceleration from the 2,500 jobs per week lost in the previous update a week ago.
With the government shutdown still impacting data releases, alternative sources like ADP are filling the economic picture void.
Government agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Economic Analysis have released revised schedules, but key reports such as monthly nonfarm payrolls will not be released until December.
When Fed policymakers meet again on Dec. 9 and 10, they won’t have much of the data they typically use to make predictions. However, in recent days, multiple officials have called for further rate cuts, and the market is recalibrating expectations for a rate cut at next month’s meeting.
“With the next jobs report scheduled for Dec. 16 and CPI on Dec. 18, there is little to derail a Dec. 10 rate cut,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hadsius said in a note to clients on Sunday.
Even though the BLS last week reported a larger-than-expected 119,000-job gain in September, once the announcements begin in earnest, Hadsius said he expects “surrogate indicators will show new job losses in October.”
Goldman’s team expects the Fed to cut rates in December and respond with another two quarter-point cut in 2026.
