Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to recession in Apollo’s trade war timeline

According to Apollo Global Management, the economic impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will soon be apparent to everyday Americans, leading to a recession this summer.

Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok laid out the timeline with a client presentation that President Donald Trump announced could sweep the US economy. According to the presentation, US consumers may notice trade-related shortages at their local stores next month, based on the shipping times required for products from China.

“The outcome will be a community-like shortage for empty shelves in US stores in the past few weeks and for businesses using consumers and Chinese products as intermediate products,” Slok wrote in a note to his client on Friday.

April 2: Tariffs announced, departure of containerships from China, slow and medium May to the US: May will be suspended in containerships to US ports: Transport demand will halt, sales will be reduced from early May to early June: truck layoffs and Retail Industry 2025: Litham

Source: Apollo Global Management

To support the idea that the US economy is on the recession crisis, the presentation also included data showing new business orders, revenue outlook and capital expenditure plans.

The Trump administration temporarily suspends some of the tariffs announced on April 2, but has raised an even higher obligation in China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Monday in CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the current tariff symbol is “unsustainable.” Collection of goods from China is currently subject to a 145% fee.

China is not the sole source of consumer goods, but it plays a major role in the US economy. The US imported $438.9 billion in goods from China in 2024. According to the US Trade Representative, it is listed on trading partners by its metrics just above Mexico and Canada.

Many on Wall Street now say that the US recession is likely to be in 2025, but Sloke’s predictions are heading towards a more pessimistic side. Bescent said the administration expects a “detox period” for trade negotiations, but it is not necessarily a recession.

There is also evidence that the order was “attracted” before the tariffs were announced.

“Don’t expect empty shelves yet — stocks are still growing (from 2019) and demand is slowing down,” Bernstein analyst Anesha Sherman said in a note to his client on Monday.

– Reported by CNBC’s Michael Bloom.