The CEO thinks the US is “probably in a recession right now,” says BlackRock’s Larry Fink.

Black Rock CEO Larry Fink said Monday that many business leaders believe the US economy is already in a substantial recession.

“Most CEOs I talk about will probably say they’re in a recession right now,” Fink said at an event for the New York Economic Club.

“One CEO, who has a CEO, specifically states that the aviation industry is a canary in the mine, a proverb bird in the mine. And I was told that the canary is already sick,” Fink added.

Asset management executives also said they believe President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could put upward pressure on inflation and make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

“The concept is that the Federal Reserve will be eased four times this year, and I think there’s no chance of that. I’m much more worried than we can raise inflation that is much higher than today,” Fink said.

Pricing in the Fed fund futures market now suggests that traders are hoping that central banks will cut their benchmark interest rates by at least one percentage point by the end of the year.

As a company, BlackRock has more than $11 trillion in assets as of the end of 2024, spreading to public and private investment.

Fink’s comments aired on Bloomberg TV.

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