The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to unveil the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October on Tuesday, November 10th at 8:30 AM New York time (13:30 UTC). This pivotal report will influence not only market sentiment but also potential decision-making by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates.
Economists project a modest rise in core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy sectors, estimating an increase of approximately 0.22% for the month. This represents a deceleration from the 0.33% rise recorded in September.
Economists expect core CPI growth to slow to around 0.22% in October, but the range of estimates is wide enough to be rounded down to 0.1% or up to 0.3%.
Due to the government shutdown in October 2025, there are no exact numbers for previous years. pic.twitter.com/CFM7ikw8fO
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 9, 2026
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $74,400, positioning itself just above a two-month low of $73,510 observed on Sunday. Historically, CPI Day has shown to bring about significant movements in the cryptocurrency market. Analysis highlights that, following the past 24 CPI releases, Bitcoin typically responded positively when core inflation was below 0.2%, with gains noted in 10 out of 13 instances. Conversely, when inflation exceeded 0.3%, Bitcoin’s price increased only 4 out of 10 times.
Economists Predict Slower Inflation Amid Varied Estimates
A relatively stable inflation rate is anticipated. A recent survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal of 17 banks and research firms indicates a median forecast for headline CPI to rise by 0.25% and the core CPI by 0.22%.
Estimates for composite CPI vary significantly, from a low of 0.14% by Nomura to a high of 0.29% by Pinebrook Capital, contrasting sharply with September’s 0.65% rise. In terms of core CPI, the predictions range from 0.13% to 0.28%, which is down from 0.33% in September. Notably, due to a government shutdown, the October 2025 CPI data is unavailable, complicating the year-over-year comparisons.
Last CPI Reading Before Fed’s Key Meeting
This CPI report is critical as it will be the final indicator assessed by the Federal Reserve before the significant meeting scheduled for December 8-9. Traders are currently predicting a high likelihood of a rate hike, with Polymarket suggesting an 86.5% chance of a 0.25 percentage point increase and an 11.5% chance of rates remaining unchanged.
Typically, higher interest rates exert downward pressure on Bitcoin, as they enhance the appeal of interest-bearing assets like bonds, diverting funds away from non-yielding investments. A stable CPI reading could counterbalance this scenario and potentially allow Bitcoin to recover lost ground.
Bitcoin Price Dynamics Following CPI Reports
Historical data on Bitcoin’s price reaction to CPI reports reveals that the first hour after the announcement is crucial. Analysis conducted on Bitcoin’s performance under various CPI conditions from October 2024 has showcased median volatility during this period of 1.17%, nearly twice the average of 0.62% for regular trading days.
Specifically, in instances where core inflation was recorded below 0.2%, Bitcoin gained in the first hour following 10 out of 13 reports, with an average increase of 0.45%. In contrast, when inflation exceeded 0.3%, Bitcoin saw gains in only 4 out of 10 readings, with an average decline of 0.11%.
The most significant one-hour decline occurred on February 12, 2025, when a core increase of 0.4% resulted in a 1.9% drop in Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Maintaining Support
As it currently stands, Bitcoin is trading slightly above the critical level of $73,510, sitting at around $74,398 on Binance—showing a modest recovery of 1.2% from Sunday’s minimum.
On technical charts, Bitcoin appears to be situated below both the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), valued at $76,481 and $79,128 respectively.
Key resistance levels include Monday’s high of $75,599 and the 200-day EMA at $76,481, followed by the 50-day EMA. Conversely, support levels to monitor are Tuesday’s low of $74,177 and Sunday’s low of $73,510, with August 21st’s low at $73,027 acting as a critical threshold if further declines occur.
BTCUSDT 1D chart. Source: TradingView
In conclusion, today’s CPI results are set to define the trajectory for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. A core CPI reading under 0.1% could pave the way for a potential rebound, with market expectations anticipating a cautious approach. Levels to observe include $75,599 and $76,481 for resistance, while $73,510 stands as a critical support level. In the first hour following the CPI announcement, Bitcoin has historically followed the trajectory established during that period, offering traders important insights into potential movements.
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker strives to deliver thorough and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide timely and accurate information; however, it should not be misconstrued as financial or investment advice. Given the rapidly changing market conditions, we recommend verifying the data independently and consulting a professional before making any investment decisions.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanisms. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to write evidence-based reports and detailed guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council and is dedicated to providing “information acquisition” that breaks through the market hype and discovers the utility of blockchain in the real world.
