As of November 6th, Ripple’s XRP experienced a significant decline, dropping 9% to a trading value of $1.19. To achieve a price of $5 by the end of the year 2026, XRP would need to see an unprecedented increase of 321% within the remaining 55 days. This ambitious target is further complicated by the fact that $5 represents a 37% rise above XRP’s all-time high of $3.66, recorded in July 2025. Additionally, the circulating supply of XRP is projected to reach approximately $318 billion, significantly higher than the current $75.3 billion.
The cryptocurrency market has rarely seen such dramatic price surges in this timeframe, particularly for XRP. An analysis of yearly performance from 2018 onward reveals that only in 2024 did XRP exceed a 321% increase between November 6th and December 31st, while other years demonstrated significantly lower gains.
Nonetheless, there’s a flicker of optimism highlighted by the behavior of large holders or ‘whales’. Recently, the number of private wallets, which possess a minimum of 1 million XRP and are not associated with exchanges or Ripple itself, increased from 1,657 to 1,764 in just one month. Collectively, these wallets have adopted 1.37 billion XRP, suggesting that substantial buying activity is taking place amid the recent price drop.
Ripple is beating out many of its larger competitors…@Ripple has issued $34.7 million in net new tokenized dollars in RLUSD, outpacing all other stablecoin issuers in the past 24 hours.
This puts it ahead of @Tether ($24.2M), @m0 ($22.6M) and @SoFi ($4.6M)… pic.twitter.com/tn5cY0GU5V
— BSCN (@BSCNews) November 6, 2026
XRP’s Historical Performance from November to Year-End
Historically, XRP’s performance from November 6th until the year’s close has been volatile and inconsistent. An evaluation from 2018 to 2026 shows major fluctuations as follows:
- 2024: Increased by 437% after the election, from $0.54 on December 3rd to $2.91.
- 2020: Up by 202%, from $0.26 to $0.78.
- 2021 and 2025: Saw modest increases of 17% each.
- For the years 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023: Growth was limited to 5% or less.
In fact, in six out of the eight years studied, XRP’s closing price on December 31st was lower than on November 6th, suggesting a prevailing trend of depreciation during this period.
Current Market Dynamics: Whale Activity and Trading Volume
Despite a decline in price, whale activity remains robust. Recent data indicates an increase in the number of accounts holding more than 1 million XRP, which is a sign of confidence from major investors. The statistics include:
- Total holders of over 1 million XRP have risen to 1,764, marking a 6.5% increase.
- Holders with more than 10 million XRP are now at 338, a gain of 21.
- The wallets controlling over 100 million XRP increased by 2, reaching 24.
- Total holdings across these private wallets have reached 21.13 billion XRP, amounting to approximately $1.6 billion based on current prices.
Conversely, overall trading volume has diminished. Daily spot trading for XRP on Binance has plummeted to an average of $117 million over the last month, a sharp decline from the $246 million averaged a month prior.
Market Sentiment and Predictions
Looking at sentiment in the futures market provides a mixed picture. On the OKX platform, for every account betting on a decrease in XRP’s price, there are nearly four betting on an increase. However, the funding fees for maintaining these positions have stayed within a typical range, indicating that the bullish outlook hasn’t reached extreme levels.
Prediction markets express skepticism, with traders assessing only about a 16% chance for XRP to surpass $2 within 2026, as reflected by the pricing of relevant contracts.
Technical Outlook for XRP
On the technical chart, XRP is currently underperforming, trading below its 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $1.32 and well under the 50-week EMA of $1.48. Key resistance and support levels to watch include:
- Resistance: 20-week EMA at $1.32; 50-week EMA at $1.48; peak from August 22nd at $1.70; and the 2026 high of $2.42 recorded on January 6th.
- Support: Recent lows at $1.18, alongside the August 14th low and the 2026 low of $0.99.
To achieve the $5 target by the end of 2026, XRP must overcome substantial resistance and not only compete with previous records but exceed them significantly. The ongoing accumulation by large holders is a positive sign; however, the performance data reflects a challenging uphill battle based on historical trends.
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