Bitwise is looking beyond Bitcoin’s recent selloff to a bigger pressure point: nearly $30 trillion in global debt that will need to be refinanced in 2026.
The company said Bitwise believes rising Japanese government bond yields and the IMF’s warnings about declining demand for government bonds could push the market further into distress, a situation that could ultimately favor Bitcoin.
Debt pressures return to center stage
Bitwise says this type of stress could become a problem if central banks respond with fresh liquidity. The company positions Bitcoin as an asset that sits outside government balance sheets and is not dependent on a central issuer, giving it a different role if government borrowing becomes difficult to manage.
Image: IFCMarkets
The report also links Bitcoin’s attractiveness to real interest rates. Bitwise said assets tend to perform better when real yields fall, and a combination of persistent inflation and a Federal Reserve pause could set the stage for that.
Bitcoin’s May rally lost momentum after soaring above $80,000. At one point it reached around $83,000, but after ETF outflows accelerated and sentiment cooled, it fell to around $70,000.
Bitcoin rallied above $80,000 in May 2026, but stalled at the $80,000-$85,000 bull market threshold before falling to $72,000. ETP outflows, sovereign debt stress, and record-keeping characterized the month.
Read the full version of the latest Bitcoin Macro Investor below. pic.twitter.com/oM5ctCIVxW
— Bitwise Europe (@Bitwise_Europe) June 1, 2026
Tough range for traders
Bitwise said a short squeeze, stronger on-chain signals, and approximately $166.5 million in net inflows into Bitcoin ETPs contributed to the rally. Long-term holders also added around 125,000 BTC in the past month, providing some support for the rally.
That image changed rapidly. Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net outflows of more than $1 billion, and the pressure reduced confidence as Bitcoin failed to clear the $80,000 to $85,000 range, the company said.
Bitwise called that zone a key dividing line in the market. He said price movements in that range will continue to shape whether traders see the market as healthy or vulnerable.
BTCUSD is trading at $69,402 on 24-hour chart: TradingView
Supply continues to be tight due to pattern maintenance
Bitwise said that despite weak demand, the supply side is on track to tighten. Long-term investors currently hold a record 14.85 million BTC, or about 73% of the circulating supply.
The company added that 60% of Bitcoins have been inactive for more than one year, 48.5% for more than two years, 42.8% for more than three years, and 33% for at least five years. Bitwise said this slowdown in activity is squeezing available supply and slowing the return of buyers.
The report also argued that Bitcoin still looks cheap compared to major US tech stocks. According to the paper, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio is below its long-term average, while the Nasdaq 100’s price-to-book ratio is close to an all-time high.
Price level still matters
Bitwise pointed to $78,000 to $80,000 as the key area to watch, with $83,000 to $85,000 being the first big ceiling. It cites $73,000 as key support and $95,000 as the next upside target.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $69,460, down 4.7% in the past 24 hours, according to data from Coingecko.
Featured images are from FXStreet, charts are from TradingView
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