Americans spent nearly $450 more per household on increased energy costs during the Iran war, according to an analysis shared exclusively with CNBC’s Steve Reisman.
The average household has spent $447.19 in additional fuel-related costs since the conflict began on February 28, according to data from Moody’s Analytics. Rising gas and airfare prices have cost U.S. consumers nearly $60 billion in cumulative losses.
Moody’s data estimates in dollar equivalents some of the economic pain Americans are feeling as the war reaches its third month. Rising energy costs could force consumers to dip into their savings and rely more on debt to cover their expenses.
“Unless the war ends soon, financially strapped consumers will be forced to become more cautious with their spending, threatening an already weak economy,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
Zandi said if prices remain at current levels, the average household could take a hit of nearly $2,000 a year after the war ends.
Roughly half of the increase in energy spending to date is due to higher gasoline prices. The average price of an unleaded gallon in the U.S. was about $4.39 on Friday, an increase of more than 47% since the beginning of March, according to AAA.
Rising prices for diesel fuel used in vehicles such as delivery trucks and boats are costing consumers more than $20 billion in additional costs. Diesel prices have similarly increased by about 47% since early March to about $5.52 per gallon per AAA.
Consumers have given up nearly $10 billion due to the rising cost of jet fuel. Airfares rose more than 20% in April compared to 12 months earlier, according to federal inflation data.
Moody’s said the impact of about $450 more than offsets the $384 per household boost from increased tax returns this year under President Donald Trump’s “Big and Beautiful Bill.” Zandi said most of the benefits from the massive tax cuts have already been used up.
Goldman Sachs said it expects rising energy prices to “erode” consumer purchasing power through the remainder of 2026. Low-income households, which spend much of their budget on food and energy, should be particularly hampered, the bank said.
costco It hit “record” gas volumes at the end of the fiscal quarter as motorists sought cheaper fuel, the wholesaler said Thursday. mcdonalds CEO Chris Kempczinski warned earlier this month that consumer spending, especially among low-income earners, “could deteriorate a little bit” as energy prices squeeze household budgets.
Look at savings and debt
Consumer spending rose 0.5% from March to April, according to government figures released on Thursday. But other data points show it doesn’t necessarily come from discretionary funds.
Income growth was flat in April, falling short of economists’ consensus forecast of a 0.4% rise.
The personal savings rate fell to 2.6% in April, the lowest level since the global financial crisis. That’s a far cry from 2020’s highs of more than 31% and suggests consumers are continuing to spend through pandemic stimulus and rainy-day buying amid inflationary pressures.
The New York Fed said this month that U.S. credit card debt totaled $1.25 trillion in the first quarter, an increase of nearly 6% from a year earlier. This is close to the previous record set at the end of 2025.
“Consumers are facing increasingly tight incomes and are being forced to tap into savings, credit and assets to maintain spending patterns,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon. “What we’re seeing is essentially people using their savings to compensate for slower income growth.”
—CNBC’s Steve Liesman and Betsy Spring contributed to this report.
