Nearly 40% of all Bitcoin in circulation was purchased at a higher price than it is currently trading at, leaving the majority of holders with losses.
The figures, cited by analyst Dirkforst, reflect general market tension as major companies hold back on purchases and demand shows little sign of recovering.
Slow withdrawal by the biggest players
According to CryptoQuant, the annual balance growth rate for whale-sized accounts (accounts holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) has turned negative.
Monthly growth across this cohort has been roughly flat since February, a pattern the on-chain analytics firm says mirrors what happened during the 2022 bear market, when prices plummeted for months.
Source: CryptoQuant
A slightly smaller but still significant holder known as Dolphin holds between 100 and 1,000 BTC and includes exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury accounts.
While balances are still growing on an annual basis, the pace has slowed sharply, with the monthly growth rate now hovering around zero, and the measure at its highest since September 2025.
CryptoQuant notes that these two groups together form the backbone of the Bitcoin market’s structural demand, making its slowdown difficult to ignore.
Long-term holders pile up, but no buyers are found
One number stands out as seemingly optimistic. That is, the supply of long-term holders has increased to a record 15.8 million BTC. On the surface, that sounds convincing. However, CryptoQuant interprets this differently. We believe this is a sign that existing holders are sitting tight while new buyers are staying away, leaving the market with no new demand needed to drive prices higher.
Tim Sun, a researcher at Hashkey Group, said the proportion of supply with unrealized losses could approach 50%, a level not seen since the depths of the recession in 2022.
He puts the absolute floor at $40,000 to $45,000, but believes $55,000 to $60,000 is a more realistic floor if the situation between the U.S. and Iran does not worsen and the Federal Reserve holds off on raising interest rates.
BTC continues to bounce back and forth within the distribution cluster between $66,000 and $80,000, where buyers and sellers are still vying for control.
This remains a difficult environment for investors, creating euphoria every time BTC approaches the cap… pic.twitter.com/8Zr96tDiJ0
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 28, 2026
What you actually need for recovery
Sun makes clear that the real turnaround is not just about price trends. He said that a decisive shift towards easing monetary policy and financial conditions is first needed.
Cryptocurrency analyst Dirkforst said the current market is in a difficult range to trade, with excitement rising every time Bitcoin approaches the upper limit and pessimism returning just as quickly when Bitcoin falls below. Priced around $73,510, the data shows the market is still looking for flooring.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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