According to the data, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index remained at negative levels even as the spot price of BTC recovered towards $78,000.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap points to selling pressure from US traders
As analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out in a post on X, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has recently entered negative territory. This indicator tracks the percentage difference between the BTC spot price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and the BTC spot price listed on Binance (USDT pair).
In other words, what this indicator tells us is how a trader’s buying and selling behavior compares between Coinbase and Binance. Below is a chart shared by Adler Jr showing the trend of the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index over the past year.
As seen in the graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index was mostly at a positive level in the second half of 2025, indicating that the asset was more expensive on Coinbase compared to Binance. Such a trend naturally means that Coinbase users were exerting higher purchasing pressure.
The trend reversed towards the end of the year as Coinbase users started selling as the price fell. The graph shows that 2026 will only further the indicator’s downward trajectory, with a massive negative peak paralleling the crash in early February.
Since the market has stabilized since the recent crash, the index has regained its composure, but negative values ​​still account for the majority. Interestingly, recent consecutive deficit levels have occurred despite BTC’s recent recovery.
Coinbase’s primary traffic is comprised of US-based investors, with US institutions being prominent clients of the platform. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been around for nearly two and a half years, serving as a gateway to institutional investors and using exchanges as custodians.
In recent years, prices have often tended to correlate with the Coinbase Premium Index, suggesting that American whales are driving the market. So it may not be surprising that the recent rally surge fizzled out due to lack of support from Coinbase users.
This pattern could also have played out again on a shorter time frame. Over the past day, Bitcoin soared toward the $78,000 level, but this move was short-lived and it has since pulled back. The Coinbase Premium Index is currently at a value of -0.098, which is the lowest level this month. This relatively high selling pressure on Coinbase could be the reason for the retrace.
BTC price
Bitcoin has returned to the $77,300 level following its recent decline.
