November was a reality check of sorts for Bitcoin (BTC) price trends. Cryptocurrency gold soared in October after successfully creating an ATH of $126,000, and the entire crypto market believed that the era of large-scale liquidation of BTC was over.
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2.25%
Bitcoin
BTC
price
$87,807.81
2.25% /24 hours
24 hour volume
$738.9 billion
price 7 days
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It continues to fall from $126,000, erasing all gains from the beginning of the year. Over the past 24 hours, its price action briefly dipped below $90,000 and reached $88,000 before the bulls intervened to limit losses.
Since then, BTC has rebounded modestly and is trading above the $90,000 support level, but further declines are possible. According to XWIN Research Japan, if the US Federal Reserve decides not to cut interest rates at its next meeting in December, Bitcoin could remain between $60,000 and $80,000 until the end of the year.
24 hours 7 days 30 days 1 year Always
The next Fed meeting is shaping up to be one of the most uncertain in years, leaving markets in analysis paralysis. Additionally, the recent U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic reports such as the October and November jobs report, leaving policymakers with limited room for action.
Just a few weeks ago, markets were expecting another rate cut in December. However, the probability of a rate cut has now fallen to around 40-50%.
Outlook for Bitcoin range if the Fed does not cut interest rates in December
“If the Fed doesn’t cut rates in December, Bitcoin will likely trade between $60,000 and $80,000 through the end of the year.” – via @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/u4gNtzIrhM
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 20, 2025
Read more: Top 20 cryptocurrencies to buy in 2025
$72 Billion Stablecoin Reserves in Waiting: Will It Stabilize BTC Price Volatility?
Historically, if monetary policy remains tight, it pulls funds away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
When it became clear that the Fed would not cut interest rates in December, the crypto market entered a slump from which it has not been able to properly recover.
Now, if the Fed decides not to cut interest rates in December, analysts think BTC will remain in this position and could move sideways within a narrow price range. The way markets work today, traders use leverage, or borrowed funds, which puts them at particular risk because there is less cash flowing through the system.
According to the study, “If the Fed chooses not to cut rates, the logic is simple: Inflation remains near 3%, officials worry about easing too soon, and the lack of data makes policymakers more cautious. This scenario typically results in tight liquidity and subdued risk appetite.”
The BTC dollar is holding steady around the $92,000 level.
US stock futures are rising after NVIDIA’s strong results, while VIX is falling.
Insights on pre-market stock trading:
Nasdaq futures rose 1.7%
pic.twitter.com/pwvWpUvUHC
— Ted (@TedPillows) November 20, 2025
Still, there is a possibility of a rebound. Stablecoin reserves on crypto exchanges have reached an all-time high of $72.2 billion, meaning a lot of money is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right time to re-enter the market. In fact, all major Bitcoin rallies in 2025 started with similar stablecoin build-ups.
If the Fed postpones the rate cut, analysts expect BTC to trade between $60,000 and $80,000 until the end of the year. For now, its price is being held by cautious investor sentiment and will not break out until traders are more certain about the Fed’s next action.
“While liquidity exists, macro uncertainties are hampering developments,” the study said. The big question now is whether the stablecoin stash will remain abandoned or will start flowing into BTC once policy uncertainty is resolved.
Explore: The Next 1000x Crypto – Introducing 10+ Crypto Tokens That Could Hit 1000x This Year
Fundamentals are strong: analysts downplay crypto winter fears
Although the market has been down for much of November, analysts still believe the current decline looks more like a macro-driven correction than the start of a crypto winter.
They pointed to institutional interest and adoption, regulatory progress, and sector resilience as signs of the sector’s strong fundamentals and fundamentals.
Bitwise’s Danny Nelson and Hashkey’s Tim Sun both argued that the market is far from a full-fledged winter.
They noted that unlike previous collapses, no catastrophic events like FTX have occurred in the current cycle, and infrastructure improvements from tokenization to stablecoin expansion continue to strengthen the ecosystem.
Explore: The best new cryptocurrencies to invest in 2025
Important points
BTC price falls from $126,000 to $88,000, wiping out all gains in 2025
The article XWIN Research Japan: BTC could stay in the $60,000-$80,000 range if the Fed keeps interest rates the same appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
