XRP MVRV ratio is below 200-day MA – Is there a trend shift in progress?

XRP has been navigating the volatile integration phase since late January, with over 40% of its value falling out from its recent highs. The broader crypto market struggles under the weight of macroeconomic uncertainty, but XRP has managed to outperform many altcoins during this recession. Some major altcoins lost more than 60% of their value in the same period, highlighting the relative strength of XRP despite continuous revisions.

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Global financial markets are under pressure to drive risk-off environments due to inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions and interest rate uncertainties. These macro factors continue to ripple through the crypto space, reducing emotions and slowing momentum on most digital assets.

However, chain data from Santiment revealed an interesting development of XRP. The MVRV (market value to realised value) ratio has just fallen below the 200-day moving average. This is a crossover that shows historically potential macrotrend shifts. This could indicate early potential for accumulation stages or deeper corrections, depending on how prices respond in the coming weeks.

Due to its high volatility and mixed emotions, the ability of XRP to retain its position and respond to important on-chain signals is important in determining the next move.

XRP is over $2 as market tensions build

The XRP is currently facing important tests as it is just above the $2 mark. This is an important level of psychological and structural support. Analysts warn that if this level is not maintained, it could trigger a sudden fix and send XRP to a deeper downtrend. The market is on the edge, and emotions become more and more divided and unstable.

Some investors remain optimistic, claiming that once macro conditions are stable and market trust is reviving, XRP is beginning to regain its highs in its range. They have pointed to the relative strength of XRP over the last few months compared to other altcoins, and believe that inter-crypto recovery can quickly lift XRP into its previous trading range.

However, others are more cautious, pointing to weakening momentum and uncertain price structures. There are growing numbers of analysts who believe XRP could enter a new bearish stage, especially if $2 support fails.

In addition to this tension, top analyst Ali Martinez shared insights on X highlighting key-on-chain development: XRP MVRV (market value to realised value) ratio fell below the 200-day moving average. Historically, this crossover has shown a change in the potential macro trends of price action. Although not bearish in nature, it often precedes a large directional movement – up and down.

Because XRP is on the edge, this MVRV signal may prove important in determining the next leg. If the Bulls can hold $2 and regain momentum, the XRP can recover quickly. Otherwise, the bearish outlook could be realized quickly. The next few days may define the XRP trajectory for the remainder of the quarter.

The XRP Bulls fight to retain critical support

XRP has been trading at $2.13 after a number of days of sustained sales pressure, showing a decline of over 21% since March 19th. Due to the recent recession, the $2-dollar level has served as a key support zone. If XRP cannot be held above this mark, you can see a shift towards bearish trends and, in the short term, open a door to the downside even further.

It is essential for a bull to regain momentum, but keeping support is not enough. XRP will also need to recover the $2.40 resistance level, which served as a cap during recent attempts to increase. A successful move above $2.40 could rekindle bullish emotions and push XRP to a new all-time high.

However, the broader markets remain vulnerable, and investors’ trust is volatile amidst the uncertainty of the macroeconomic. A breakdown of less than $2 could cause an increase in sales pressure and confirm that the recent rise was merely a temporary bounce within a larger corrective structure.

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The upcoming days are important for XRP. Whether the Bulls can defend $2 and begin their recovery, or whether the bear takes control, determines the next direction in the trend.

Dall-E special images, TradingView chart