One of the most interesting matchups in college football history will take place Monday night at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium as the hometown Hurricanes take on the Indiana Hoosiers for the national championship (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+).
Led by coach Curt Cignetti and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, Indiana is 15-0 this season and looking to win the program’s first title. This is one of the biggest turnarounds in college football, as the Hoosiers entered this season with the most total losses in college football.
Meanwhile, Miami (13-2), a former powerhouse, has won five championships. But the Hurricanes’ last title came in 2001, and until recently they’ve had teams that haven’t lived up to expectations.
Who will come out on top Monday night? NBC News’ Rohan Nadkarni, Andrew Greif and Tim Lohan and NBC Sports’ Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry break it down from every angle.
Other than Fernando Mendoza and Carson Beck, who are the players you’re most interested in?
Grief: “Tie!” The Hoosiers’ receiving team is Elijah Surratt and Omar Cooper Jr. If either side gets open, the game will tilt in Indiana’s favor. Neither production is remarkable as measured by pure receiving yards. But they show up when it matters most. Surratt’s 15 receiving touchdowns lead the nation, while Cooper’s 13 rank third. Mendoza is clearly targeting both the red zone and big plays.
Auerbach: Miami’s star running back Mark Fletcher Jr. has carried this offense through the College Football Playoff, totaling nearly 400 rushing yards over the past three games. To me, he’s the key to the Hurricanes having a chance to win this game. That’s because not only is it important for the Hurricanes offensive line to set the tone and bully the Indiana defensive front, but it’s important that the run game eats up time and helps Miami sustain long drives. Indiana is very good at that, and Miami will have to match that.
A reliable rushing attack will also help quarterback Carson Beck succeed. He’s going to have to take a few shots down the field in this game, but we all know the quarterback’s best friend has a great run game. If the Hoosiers force the Canes to become one-dimensional, it’s going to be a long night for Beck and co.
Perry: When you think of Indiana, a lot of impact players come to mind. Stephen Daley was one of the most productive defensive linemen in the country this season before his injury. Aiden Fisher is a tackling machine and you can see his leadership when you watch him play, and D’Angelo Pons is a lockdown corner who can change the game.
But Indiana linebacker Isaiah Jones is sure to make an appearance. He plays behind the line of scrimmage, and his sacks and tackles for loss are proof of that. He’s a great blitzer and finishes plays at the point of attack. I think he can be a difference-maker for the defense against a Miami team that has run the ball well this postseason.
On the Miami side, we take a different approach. It’s not just one player, it’s a group. I will focus on the Hurricanes offensive line because they have to dominate the line of scrimmage. They have been great this postseason, and Indiana’s ability to pick up stunts and blitzes will have a direct impact on their ability to win games.
Well, these guys are big! Left tackle Markelle Bell is 6 feet 9 inches tall, weighs 340 pounds, and has a light feel and long arms. He didn’t let Beck put any pressure on him all season. Their right tackle, Francis Mauigoa, is a 6-foot-6, 315-pound projected first-round pick. Oh, and head coach Mario Cristobal is a former offensive lineman and offensive line coach.
It’s easy to put players in the trenches on the back burner, but Miami knows the team will move with the offensive line.
Nadkarni: Ruben Bain Jr. is the type of defensive player who can sway games in Miami’s favor. After recording four sacks in the Hurricanes’ first two playoff games, Bane overcame some pressure in the win against Ole Miss. That’s exactly the kind of effort Miami will need to pull off an upset Monday night.
The Hurricanes’ strength has been playing in the trenches on both sides of the ball all year, and Bane has played a big role in threatening opposing offenses. If he can generate extra possessions for the offense with a strip sack, or make Mendoza even a little uncomfortable in the pocket, that’s a big win for Miami.
Lohan: Pat Coogan. That’s right, Indiana center Pat Coogan. Rose Bowl Offensive MVP Pat Coogan. I’m sure others will choose wide receiver or running back, but I think Coogan and his fellow Hoosier offensive linemen will be key to the game. Can he keep Miami’s elite defensive line in check and give Mendoza time to work?
Miami’s defense is extremely talented, led by Bane and Akheem Mesidor. The Hurricanes’ front seven dominated No. 2 Ohio State a few weeks ago when Miami sacked quarterback Julian Sane five times and intercepted him twice. The Hurricanes’ pass rush could cause major problems for the Indiana offense unless Coogan and the rest of the Hoosiers’ line can nullify it.
The bigger implications for college football: Will Indiana win the national title after years of losing, or will Miami return to glory?
Auerbach: Indiana. This is the same program that started the season with more losses than anyone in college football history. I love the trajectory of both teams and how they got here, but what the Hoosiers are trying to do in a sport that has basically never been successful is unparalleled in the history of college sports.
For a very long time, college football has been dominated by blue bloods. It was largely set up in a way designed to keep David away from Goliath, at least when it came to determining a champion. There wasn’t really a path for a team like Indiana to do this. There was never a path for a team like Indiana to attract enough talent to compete with the sport’s elite teams. Now, thanks to NIL/revenue sharing and transfer rules, players can receive instant eligibility.
While other teams quickly shuffle their rosters and increase their win totals year after year, Indiana does this much better and much faster than other teams. It is truly the beginning of a new era. I really think a national title for Indiana will be a clear dividing line between college football’s past and the new world order.
Perry: The reality is, whichever team wins, it’s going to have a huge impact on the sport. Let’s look back over the past few years. The ACC is in a bit of an existential crisis. After the latest round of conference realignment, there were questions about the top schools in the ACC being poached. There were also questions about television contracts, which are nowhere near the Big Ten or SEC. Questions arose about revenue distribution, and the ACC restructured how funds are distributed to top schools in order to keep them happy. In addition to that, there was a growing feeling that the ACC, along with the Big 12, was inferior to the Big Ten and SEC in terms of their ability to win championships in football.
So it feels like a big deal for an ACC team to win the title. But the fact that it’s Miami feels monumental. This is a storied program that was once the pinnacle of the sport. Everything about “The U” was so cool! This is one of the teams that made me fall in love with college football. Seeing them rise to the top once again would see one of the giants of the sport return to prominence.
Nadkarni: If Indiana University were to win a national championship, it would be a great counterpunch to the idea that college sports are in terrible shape. Yes, much-needed guardrails should be added to the current structure regardless of Monday night’s outcome. At the same time, if the Hoosiers have an undefeated season and defeat one storied program after another, the idea that college football has become a lawless land that only benefits the wealthy will be turned on its head.
Indiana is proving that coaching matters. This proves that transfer portals can benefit schools other than bluebloods as well. Every team had a chance to hire Cignetti or take one of these players. Heck, Mendoza grew up in Miami as a Hurricanes fan, and the school ended up passing him up multiple times. There is a lot of work to be done in college football, but a win for Indiana University would prove that the playing field is more level than many think.
Rohan: Definitely Indiana. If the Hoosiers win and complete the Cinderella run, it will be a victory for the underdog. It gives every mid-major program hope that they can find their Cininetti, pluck their Mendoza and rise to the top of the sport. People won’t forget this team even if Indiana loses, but will they feel the same way all these years? As Indiana linebacker Aiden Fisher recently said, “We know if we don’t win this game, it means nothing.”
Greif: Indiana has to come out of nowhere to do this, right? Of all the big sports in America, college football has the most caste-like system, with success, money, and power traditionally and almost exclusively wielded by the biggest, most tradition-rich football programs, with everyone else vying for scraps. Indiana’s rise as a perennial underdog, with basketball taking precedence over football, upset decades of precedent. And if Indiana can do it, you better believe there will be a ripple effect of optimism for other universities who wonder why they can’t do it too.
National championship candidate
Perry: Indiana 24, Miami 14.
I think this will be a close battle. These two teams are well built on both lines of scrimmage. Each team has an experienced quarterback. They are both violent and aggressive. They can wreak havoc on defenses. Indeed, they mirror each other in many ways.
But the difference for me is consistency. I believe Indiana will stay this way year-round. A team that plays with elite discipline. A team that doesn’t make mental mistakes. A team that does not commit penalties. And a team that doesn’t get into the emotion of the game.
Miami had its best performance this postseason. Still, it’s hard to ignore the midseason inconsistency. Penalties could creep in, as they did in the semifinal matchup against Ole Miss. It’s even harder to trust Miami against an undisciplined team like Indiana. So give the Hoosiers their third straight Big Ten title.
Nadkarni: Indiana 38, Miami 24.
It will be tough to compete against the Hoosiers, who have only gotten better as the year has gone on. Indiana defeated Alabama and followed up that performance by defeating an Oregon team they had already beaten this year. Like Miami, the Hoosiers are strong in the trenches. And unlike the Hurricanes, Indiana has an incredibly dynamic player who can win games on his own at quarterback. I expect Mendoza to be a difference-maker on nights when the Hoosiers don’t feel particularly threatened.
Lohan: Indiana 31, Miami 14.
In the College Football Playoff, Indiana defeated Alabama and Oregon, two blue-blooded programs, by a combined score of 94-25. The Hoosiers are talented, well-coached, and undiminished on the big stage. Miami’s defense keeps the game somewhat close, but Indiana pulls away late.
Grief: Indiana 35, Miami 21.
I don’t think Indiana is infallible. And if I were a Hoosier, my biggest concern would be how Miami’s offensive and defensive lines would be able to dominate games. Still, I stand here as someone who follows a simple rule. That means don’t doubt Indiana’s Cininetti until proven otherwise. He’s produced some of the most amazing comebacks in college football history, so anyone, including me, should be wary of picking them.
Auerbach: Indiana 37, Miami 17.
Six weeks ago when the slots were announced, I picked the Hoosiers to win it all. This team has no weaknesses, so we will continue to play. Mendoza, a Heisman Trophy winner, is very efficient in the passing game. The Hoosiers have a two-headed monster in the run game. They stop the run well and protect the pass well. They rarely take penalties and rarely turn the ball over. they can’t beat themselves. So I think Miami has to be basically perfect to win this game.
The Canes are coming off a game in which they were whistled for 10 penalties (and dropped four interceptions). He will have to play a clean game to have a chance, but even that may not be enough.
Indiana may not be the most talented team in college football, but it is the best team in the country. And I think the Hoosiers will hoist that trophy on Monday night.
