BEIJING – China’s annual major political events are taking place this week, bringing together the country’s top leaders and thousands of state leaders to support decisions already taken by the Chinese Communist Party around the country.
Conferences and rallies during the National People’s Assembly, which are expected to last about a week, remain important. Rubber Stamp Council holds important functions. It signals the government’s priorities for next year and spreads directions to party members and officials across the country.
The message from leadership seems to be the same from the past few years. Maintains courses on promoting innovation and promoting domestic consumption.
The question is how they balance the balance between these two goals, and are they sufficient to reinvigorate the economy? And to what extent will the government buffer the impact of another stage of the US-China trade war?
This year marks the end of China’s current five-year plan, with experts looking for clues on government priorities for the 2026-2030 plan.
Here’s what you should see at this year’s event:
What are China’s economic growth goals?
The National People’s Assembly began on Wednesday, with China’s top economic officer Prime Minister Li Chang unveiling this year’s economic growth targets.
Analysts expect it to hold the same target as the last two years, at 5%, slightly lower than the 2022 5.5% target.
Another uncertainty is trade tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump. He slapped a 10% tariff on Chinese imports last month, but another 10% comes into effect on Tuesday. International Monetary Fund forecasters have forecast a growth rate of 4.6% this year.
What are the government’s priorities?
Commentary from the official Xinhua conference last Friday showed that it will be prioritized for increasing domestic demand and promoting science and technology innovation.
It is also expected that government support will increase in private sector support to drive growth.
China’s national president Xi Jinping met business leaders in February, including Alibaba founder Jack Ma and Howay CEO Len Zenfei. It should also be deliberated between Congresses during Congress to create a more equitable and equitable business environment for the private sector.
China has already released numerous measures to support its economy. Many of these fall short of hope for a bigger stimulus package, and analysts are easing expectations about what to expect from Congress.
“The Chinese Institute of Research has made it a great opportunity to learn about the world,” said Jacob Gunter, chief analyst with the Economic Research Team at the Chinese Institute of Studies.
Instead, experts say leaders are maintaining courses to drive innovation that will boost China’s independence.
The purpose of the economy is no longer to improve household incomes and expand the middle class, Gunter said.
“This is not a development-oriented economy,” he said. “It’s a geopolitical economy, and that’s why technology and industry are more important.”
Where is China’s diplomacy heading?
Li is expected to touch on foreign policy and Taiwan, but more attention will be paid to Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
His annual press conference is scheduled to take place later in the week and will be closely monitored to decipher China’s stance on US-China relations under Trump. After the first 10% tariffs in February, China retaliated with 15% tariffs on American coal and liquefied natural gas, 10% of crude oil, agricultural machinery and heavy engine vehicles.
“Beijing’s response to Trump’s first 10% tariffs has been measured. It is restrained enough to show openness to negotiations, but is restrained enough to show willingness to escalate when necessary,” Neil Thomas and Jin Qian wrote in a report from the Asian Association’s Institute of Policy Studies.
They note that when XI appointed the US as the leader of “containment and suppression” two years ago, it could use speeches at closed sessions during Congress to send signals about bilateral relations.
Also, China’s relations with Russia and its position on the Ukrainian war is closely observed. In a recent group of 20 foreign ministers’ meetings in South Africa, Wang said that “windows for peace are open” in Ukraine, and that China supported “all efforts dedicated to peace, including the recent consensus reached by the US and Russia.”
What is the National Congress doing?
The parliament consists of approximately 3,000 representatives from China’s states, ministries, the People’s Liberation Army, party organizations, and various groups representing workers and other interests.
Their role is primarily ritual in that the body does not have the real power to determine legislation. Voting is usually unanimous or almost indifferent to formally formalize decisions already made by the Communist leader in a closed room.
Yet it is a rare opportunity for Congress to see what the central government sees as its priorities and goals, and reports and speeches within it can point to the future direction of government policy.
The Chinese Political Council, the advisory body, will meet at the same time. Members include business leaders, athletes, academics, religious leaders and representatives of ethnic groups. A simultaneous meeting of two bodies is known as two sessions.
