US payroll increased by 228,000 in March

Providing at least a temporary relief that the labour market is stable, employment growth was stronger than expected in March, the Labor Bureau reported Friday.

Non-farm salaries are up 228,000 from the revised 117,000 in February, outperforming Dow Jones’ estimates of 140,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

However, as labor participation rates also rose, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, higher than forecast of 4.1%.

The headline numbers beat the estimate, but the report goes against a very uncertain background after President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement this week intensified fears of a global trade war that could undermine economic growth.

The stocks responded little to the report. The Dow Jones industrial average is tied to low prices, but still fell by more than 900 points, while the Treasury yields were sharply negative.

“We are committed to providing a comprehensive range of services to our customers,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector bond investments in Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “But this number has become a side dish in the market focused on Antrée: Tariffs.”

Trump has announced a 10% flat duty for all trading partners, and has released a wide menu of so-called mutual tariffs that have already caused retaliation from China and others. Wall Street has been actively in sale mode for the past two days, with stocks falling and investors gathering securely on bonds.

In a post about the True Society, the president said, “A great work figure that’s far better than expected. It’s already working. It’s difficult, you won’t lose!!!”

Previous indicators showed that the labor market was maintained, but tariff movements increase the likelihood that businesses will be curbing employment when assessing what the new trade environment looks like.

However, despite seeing a much lower revision in January and February numbers in March, numbers still point to a strong labor market. In addition to a 34,000 reduction from the initial count in February, growth in January was just 111,000, down 14,000 from previous estimates.

Along the forecast, average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% along the forecast, but the annual rate of 3.8% was below 0.1 percentage points below the estimates and lowest levels since July 2024. The average working week did not change at 34.2 hours.

In March, healthcare was a growing area ahead of time, coinciding with the past few months. The industry has added 54,000 jobs. This is almost exactly in line with the 12-month average. Other growth areas include social aid and retail stores, both adding 24,000, while transportation and warehouses showed an increase of 23,000.

Federal positions have fallen by just 4,000 to ease the federal workforce, despite Elon Musk-led efforts. However, BLS noted that workers on retirement or paid leave are counted as being employed. A report from Thursday’s consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows that Doge-related layoffs have totaled over 275,000.

“Even with tariff uncertainty and federal employment cuts, the economy still adds jobs, but the data appears to be backwards and doesn’t say anything about how employers will pay for the next few months,” said Glenn Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management.

The broader unemployment indicators, including those who are not looking for a job or those who work part-time for financial reasons (employment shortages), have now fallen to 7.9%.

A survey of households used to determine unemployment rates was closely in line with the facility’s salaries as it showed the benefits of 201,000 workers. Additionally, full-time workers have increased by 459,000, while part-time workers have decreased by 44,000.

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