Recruiters will speak with job seekers at Appalachia State University Internship and Job Fair in Boone, North Carolina, USA on Wednesday, October 1, 2025.
Allison Joyce | Bloomberg | Getty Images
If you can’t eagerly monitor the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment reports and it seems like the first Friday of the month wasn’t the same, don’t worry. You probably didn’t miss much.
The BLS is in darkness as it closes in Washington, but other reports besides government data suggest that the labour market has just been planted in September.
Dow Jones’ consensus forecast was stable at 4.3% unemployment, with a growth of 51,000 people on non-farm payroll calculations.
High-frequency data including job postings, private pay, and state-by-state numbers for initial unemployed claims indicate that employment growth continues to be anemia, but the labor market overall is not at a point in time.
“We’re fighting the Army that we have at moments like this, where it’s very important to understand whether the economy is a transitional moment,” Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Ghoolsby said in an interview with CNBC on Friday. “This is something we have and so far it continues to refer to a rather stable labor market.”
The Chicago Federal Government is one of the organisations seeking to provide an alternative to BLS data that was exposed to harsh White House criticism before the closure this week.
The timing was a coincidence, but in September the Central Bank District released its own dashboard of data measuring key labor market metrics such as unemployment, employment rates and layoff rates.
Conclusion: The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.3%, but another 1/100th point or half was pushed to 4.4%. This is the highest since October 2021, but is still low by historical standards.
Other non-governmental data showed similar trends. Conditions are generally softening, and job availability is gradually shrinking.
However, employers are still reluctant to part ways with workers given lessons from the community pandemic when monumental work replenishes those jobs following early stage layoff rashes. At some point, the open position is more than 2 to 1 above the available workers.
“Many newcomers in the market, young workers, recent graduates, and people who are already unemployed (those who are already entering the market) say Cory Stahle, a senior economist at the recruitment site, offers a comprehensive menu of labor market data in itself. “No matter what the unemployment rate is, people who take longer to find jobs are a sign of economic distress for some households.”
Signs of imbalance
In fact, job vacancies measures showed a decline of about 8.9% from one year ago on September 26th, a sharper drop than the 5.5% reflected in BLS data.
The broader trend suggests an uneven labor market where occupations like healthcare continue to thrive while other sectors are lagging behind, Stahle said.
“Overall, things look pretty good, but the benefits of those jobs, a lot of posts, a lot of those posts and jobs come from healthcare, so it’s hard to say that the labour market is perfectly balanced if you don’t offer equal opportunities in different occupations,” he said.
Additionally, BLS data shows a rather substantial slope at the opening to healthcare-related occupations, followed by business and professional services, followed by leisure and hospitality. The government was a leader, but it has been pulling back since President Donald Trump began his term in January by vowing to cut his federal salary.
“Now is a good time to become a nurse and not a good time to work as a software developer,” added Stahle. “That branch of the labor market is not just about the overall balance and overall numbers, but also about what we need to see here.”
Other indicators draw similar pictures, but ADP’s private payroll calculations for September saw a decline in 32,000 jobs and a decline in August to 3,000. ADP is also malicious because it does not match BLS data. However, the company’s report shows that BLS had slowed down its labour market before marking down its count, showing weak recruitment photos.
The monthly non-farm payroll accounts were not the only ones who went missing due to the closure. The Labor Bureau also did not release a weekly tally of its initial unemployment claims.
Goldman Sachs came to rescue for that indicator and thought that the state-level billing data submitted pointed to a national total of 224,000, slightly higher than the previous week, but was largely in line with annual trends.
Other means
Spending data beyond simple jobs and payroll counts can also be useful indirect gauges.
Bank of America’s credit and debit card tracking showed spending on a steady increase in September. Compared to a year ago, this was an increase of 2.2% in the week ending September 27th.
“Despite soft labor data, spending growth remains strong. We will continue to monitor this dichotomy,” Bofa economist Shruti Mishra said in a client’s note.
Similarly, Fiserv’s Small Business Index shows annual sales, up 2.3% in September, reflecting the same pace for the past three months.
However, other small business indicators show weakness.
“Now we see that there are many businesses that have open-up to jobs. Unfortunately, it’s rarely met,” Bill Dunkilberg, chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Businesses, told CNBC on Friday. “So the plans to fill them up are always very optimistic, but once the dust clears, they’re actually very little made.”
