According to NBC News, Republicans are set to maintain their majority in the Senate over the next two years, stirring concerns among Democrats regarding Vice President Kamala Harris’ prospects in the upcoming presidential election.
The GOP achieved a Senate majority by flipping crucial seats in conservative-leaning states, specifically in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, which had all leaned heavily Republican. They also retained seats in states like Texas and Florida, ensuring a minimum of 51 seats when the new Congress is inaugurated next January.
This Republican success in strategically winning key Senate races gives them significant influence over legislation and appointments under President Donald Trump, who NBC News anticipates will reclaim the presidency. The outcome for the control of the House remains to be determined by NBC News.
With hopes high, Democrats believed that substantial campaign funding from incumbents and their supporters would help counter the strong Republican momentum in these red states, but ultimately, political dynamics defined the day.
As Senate Republicans prepare to choose a new leader next week, former long-serving leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will step down after 18 years in office. Current assistant leader Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) and former assistant leader Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) are both in contention for the leadership position with the new Congress.
“The Biden-Harris Administration has burdened Americans with increased prices, border challenges, and global uncertainty for four consecutive years,” stated Republican Leader Thune. “With the assistance of the Senate, we can initiate a new chapter to rectify this costly and irresponsible era in American governance.”
Historically, every new president since 1992 has taken office with their party in command of both congressional chambers. However, with House control still up for grabs, this historic trend may not repeat for Trump this time.
Republicans’ Path to Senate Victory
Democrats went into the elections with a slim 51-49 edge. As anticipated, the Republicans are set to secure the open seat in West Virginia, where Governor Jim Justice is predicted to win, succeeding retiring Democratic Senator Joe Manchin who recently switched to independent.
In Ohio, Republican candidate Bernie Moreno is reported to have defeated incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Furthermore, a Democratic seat in Montana was flipped as Republican Tim Sheehy triumphed over Sen. Jon Tester.
Democrats are still defending five additional seats in battleground states, including the open seat left by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, the open seat for independent Sen. Krysten Sinema in Arizona, and Sen. Jacky Rosen in Nevada.
Hopes for Democrats to win Republican-held seats fell short in Texas, where Senator Ted Cruz is projected to win another term, and in Florida, where Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) triumphed over former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Despite optimism from some Democrats, major funding from outside groups undermined their efforts in Florida.
In Nebraska, populist independent candidate Dan Osborn challenged the lesser-known Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, but Fischer is expected to maintain her seat.
House Race Remains Tight
The race for control of the House of Representatives is precarious, with early shifts in seats and redistricting contributing to uncertainty about which party will prevail.
Republicans currently hold a narrow majority of 220-212 and entered election day with three open seats—two firmly blue and one strongly red. To regain control and the speakership, Democrats need to secure a net gain of just four seats.
The competitive arena is limited, encompassing 22 districts classified as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report, with 10 seats held by Democrats and 12 by Republicans. Additionally, numerous other seats are intensely contested, leaning towards one party or the other.
Particularly in New York and California, ten competitive congressional districts are under scrutiny. While Harris is anticipated to win these states in the presidential election, Republicans are focusing on gaining ground in these districts.
In New York, Republicans preserved four districts they flipped in 2022, maintaining their House majority. Among notable races, Democratic challenger John Mannion defeated Republican Representative Brandon Williams in the Syracuse area. Freshman Republicans like Rep. Mark Molinaro, Mike Lawler, and Anthony D’Esposito are battling for their seats. Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan successfully defended his position against Jill Esposito’s candidacy in New York’s Hudson Valley, which showed a tendency towards Democrats.
In Pennsylvania, six-term Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, known for representing President Joe Biden’s hometown Scranton, was defeated by Republican Rob Bresnahan.
A minimum of five Republican incumbents are also experiencing fierce competition for re-election in central California.
Newcomer John Duarte is vying against Democrat Adam Gray in the 13th district, while Congressman David Valadao faces off again against Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd district. Rep. Mike Garcia is contending with Democratic Rep. George Whiteside in the 27th district, long-serving Congressman Ken Calvert tries to fend off Democrat Will Rollins in the 41st district, and Congresswoman Michelle Steele is up against Democrat Derek Tran in the 48th district.
Current House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) have recently dedicated significant time in key battleground districts as well as pivotal states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and regions of the Pacific Northwest.
As voting commenced on Tuesday, the House Democratic campaign chair expressed a positive outlook.
“We are in an excellent position,” Rep. Susan DelBene, D-Wash., told NBC News. “We have strong candidates who align with the American people’s views. Resources to mobilize voters are in place, setting our party up to reclaim the majority, regain the gavel, and position Hakeem Jeffries as the next speaker.”
However, she cautioned that the competition is fierce and vote counting may take “several days” before the outcome is clear.
“We might not know the results tonight,” DelBene indicated.
Meanwhile, addressing his supporters in Shreveport, Louisiana, Johnson mentioned plans to meet with Trump, indicating a hopeful outlook for the election results from the GOP perspective. It signals that the party feels confident about their prospects. Legs of other key leaders like Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) are also preparing to meet with Trump, enhancing the confirmation of Republican optimism.
“I believe it’s going to be a night to remember as the votes are counted,” Johnson remarked, addressing his audience. “We’ll also regain the Senate and the White House.”
A Busy Agenda Ahead
The new Congress will begin its work alongside a newly elected president without delay.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act, a compromise reached between Biden and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has extended the debt ceiling until January 2025. While the Treasury Department can avoid an immediate fiscal crisis through extraordinary measures, another bipartisan agreement will likely be necessary.
The Senate is expected to dedicate its initial sessions to confirming the president’s judicial and cabinet nominees, along with hundreds of other appointments for various governmental roles.
Should Republicans secure full control alongside the presidency, it would mirror the political landscape they had in 2016, with Trump potentially returning to power.
In such a scenario, Republicans would face the challenge of determining how to effectively utilize the unique budget reconciliation process, allowing them to advance legislation without requiring Democratic support. The decision will involve whether to revisit Trump-era tax cuts or to make another attempt at repealing or restructuring the Affordable Care Act, after falling short in 2017.
Johnson, who is closely tied to the election’s outcome, recently emphasized that should Republicans emerge victorious, the party would aim for significant reforms, especially related to the Affordable Care Act. He stated, “The ACA is entrenched, necessitating substantial reforms to enhance its functionality, and we have numerous ideas on how to accomplish that,” during an event in Pennsylvania.
Should Democrats manage to gain control of both the White House and Congress, it would represent a remarkable achievement, especially considering their challenging Senate positions. This would boost Harris’ ambitious economic proposals and prioritize legislation aimed at establishing abortion rights.
