A record number of Americans will be traveling this weekend, packing up and leaving to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with family, friends, and maybe even soccer.
But early data, research and industry experts say travel will look different this year than it did 12 months ago.
The main culprit behind the change? The number of travelers will increase. Economic anxiety is deepening. Tensions over geopolitics. And the six-week government shutdown just ended a few weeks ago.
Log travelers, but belts will be tighter
AAA predicts that 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles during this long holiday. That’s 1.6 million more people than last Thanksgiving, a record level.
Six million of them are expected to take domestic flights, an increase from last year. However, AAA warns that with recent flight cancellations, some air travelers may decide to switch to trains, buses, cars or RVs.
More than one-third of Americans planning to travel in the next six months said their plans were affected by the six-week government shutdown, according to survey data from travel and tourism research firm Longwoods International.
Meanwhile, Longwoods President and CEO Amir Eilon said some vacation travel simply “evaporated.” He pointed to survey data showing that nearly one in three people whose holiday travel plans were affected by the government shutdown canceled them entirely.
Scott Keyes, founder of travel app Going.com, isn’t surprised by the loss.
“Given the fact that more than 1 million people went without pay during the government shutdown, and many people are waiting to make plans in the final weeks before traveling, it’s safe to assume that a significant number of travelers are skipping trips they would otherwise have taken,” he said in an email.
Kai Boisin, CEO of Flix North America, the parent company of FlixBus and Greyhound bus services, said it’s too early to predict how many people will choose to take commercial buses this weekend.
“Most bus reservations are made within 24 to 72 hours of departure,” he said in an email. “However, searches have been increasing year-over-year, especially around peak days: the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and around Sunday.”
Melissa Ulrich, owner of Austin, Texas-based travel company You Pack We Plan, said the closures have only exacerbated the effects of existing economic pressures on some customers.
“We let our clients choose different levels of travel,” she said. Ulrich said some luxury travelers are downsizing from five-star accommodations to four-star accommodations, while other customers are downgrading from four-star accommodations to 3.5-star accommodations.
“It started this summer and the closures continued,” she said.
Unemployment has slowly risen this year as the U.S. job market has slowed, and inflation remains high.
A holiday travel study by consulting giant Deloitte found similar factors at play. Although the number of travelers is increasing overall, the amount of money each person is expected to spend has fallen significantly.
Even before the government was shut down for six weeks, a Deloitte survey found that vacationers planned to spend about 18% less this year on average than in 2024.
“Financial concerns may be overshadowing the season, as many travelers are expected to reduce the number of trips they take, the length of their trips, and their overall travel budgets,” said Eileen Crowley, head of Deloitte’s U.S. transportation and hospitality services practice.
Still, 54% of Americans said they planned to travel between Thanksgiving and mid-January, 5 points higher than in the same survey a year ago.
But there is a big pitfall. The overall increase in travelers is primarily driven by people who plan to stay with friends or family and do not plan to pay for hotels, cruises or B&Bs, the Deloitte study found.
That means more friends and relatives can be expected to have accidents on the couch or in an empty bedroom, potentially leaving less money for tipping, restaurant bills, and theater tickets.
Canadian questions
For the more than 8 million Americans who make a living directly from travel and tourism, there could be a double whammy: less income coming in from domestic travelers and a sharp decline in the number of international visitors.
Data consistently shows that international travelers are opting out of visiting the United States, and that a variety of factors influence their decisions.
These include growing fears of being detained by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, longer visa wait times, higher fees, and concerns about political rhetoric and reports of violence.
Overall international travel to the U.S. this year is expected to be just 85% of 2019 levels, according to the industry-leading U.S. Travel Association.
What is the main reason for the large drop? The number of tourists from Canada has decreased significantly.
In previous years, Canadian travelers accounted for just over a quarter of all foreign visitors to the United States, according to international travel data.
However, newly released Canadian statistics show that 30% fewer Canadian residents drove across the border from the United States to return home in October compared to the same month last year.
Similarly, the number of travelers flying back to Canada from the U.S. during the same period fell by almost a quarter.
Aside from the missing Canadian travelers, the number of international travelers to the United States is expected to be flat or slightly down this year.
But for many who make a living from traveling, next year will be the difference between winning and losing.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be held in the United States. The event traditionally draws millions of spectators from around the world to the host country for the matches.
In an apparent effort to encourage visitors, the Trump administration announced a new fast-track visa system for World Cup ticket holders, giving them access to priority schedules for visa interviews. However, potential tournament participants could still face a patchwork of travel bans in place in different countries.
