Soldiers march during a military parade to commemorate the U.S. Army’s 250th birthday on June 14, 2025 in Washington, DC, USA.
Nathan Howard | Reuters
A situation involving the US military could propel warring factions in Washington, as the government shutdown offers little hope for a quick resolution.
No, soldiers will not be called to duty to force Congress to return to work.
But paychecks looming in mid-October may convince the armed services’ 1.3 million active members to convince lawmakers and the White House that missing the date isn’t worth the political cost.
“We believe the Oct. 15 military paycheck could be a significant enforcement event to restore funding and hopefully end the shutdown by mid-October.” goldman sachs economists Lonnie Walker and Alec Phillips said in a client note.
The Wall Street firm noted that prediction markets raise the high probability that the deadline will last beyond the deadline. Polymarket reflects a 71% probability of a shutdown occurring past October 14th.
Each side is digging in their heels on the fiscal budget, but a missed pay period could crush public anger. At the very least, it could lead to temporary legislation known as a continuing resolution to allow the government to operate, Goldman economists said.
If not, it could mean an even longer stalemate.
“We anticipate building pressure on both parties to reach a compromise before then,” they wrote. “That said, if this pressure leads to an alternative outcome — the Defense Department might find a way to pay the military despite the lapse in funding, or Congress might be under pressure to approve funding for that particular issue — there are few other specific mandatory events on the calendar that could lead to reinstatement of funding.”
Observations offer a glimmer of hope for a solution.
The Senate is scheduled to vote Monday at 5:30 p.m., but observers expect little progress. President Donald Trump has threatened that some temporary layoffs resulting from the impasse could become permanent if a deal is not reached.
There are myriad issues that could force Congress’ hand beyond military pay. The release of data that policymakers rely on has been halted, delays at airports could loom depending on whether Transportation Security Administration workers show up, and most other government services are closed pending agreements.
Still, there is a fear that neither side will budge.
“Concerns about military pay, TSA operations, or service members’ mortgage payment delays could be catalysts for compromise,” Raymond James Washington policy analyst Ed Mills said in a note. “While a short-term sustained resolution remains the most likely outcome, it does not exclude the risk of a prolonged shutdown until November.”
Other dates to watch include the October 13th Female Infant Benefit.
However, the risk remains that the shutdown will continue, according to PIMCO analysts.
“Shutdown is easy, reopening is more difficult, and this seems particularly intractable, at least for now,” the company said in a note.
