Steven Chechette (C) will speak with recruiters at Keysource Booth at the Mega Jobnewsusa South Florida Job Fair held at Amerant Bank Arena on April 30, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
A clue as to whether the US economy is simply a temporary tariff-induced funk or there is a longer turn trend that will damage more, should come when the Labor Bureau releases its April employment report.
Economists expect non-farm payroll to post an increase of 133,000 when it comes to a steep slide from 228,000 in March, according to Dow Jones’ consensus. However, the first three months of the year will only average just below 152,000, which could be sufficient to hold the unemployment rate at around 4.2%.
But, like the bad economic news these days, negative side surprises can be dangerous given the general uncertainty surrounding the way President Donald Trump is implementing tariffs on US trading partners.
“I think it’s all acceptable if you give or take about 150,000 people,” said Mark Zandy, chief economist at Moody’s Analysis. “So I think we’ll finish the week, it’s not okay, but it’s fine. Things aren’t falling apart.”
However, Zandi and other economists say that financial markets may want to decorate for disappointment. Specifically, he looks at under 100,000 payroll growth.
“If there’s anything 100,000 or south of the number, I think I’m careful,” he said. “After that, all the other data will become more important and people will cut their expectations. It could be a tough day in the market.”
Bad news is piled up
This week’s investors had to digest GDP readings that showed the economy had signed 0.3% annually in the first quarter. They also look at weak private pay readings from ADP, and according to a report from the Ministry of Labor, there are sharp slides of job openings and increased unemployment claims, as well as a mixed bag of inflation measurements.
Still, Wall Street was hanging tough, pushing the Dow Jones industrial average up to 2% per week as investors continued to focus on the latest White House tariff news.
Still, bad work reports can quickly change it, and there are fundamental signs of weakness.
The ADP reported only 62,000 in individual employment when it is a non-reliable gauge of non-farm payroll counts. At the same time, job openings fell to about 7.2 million, the lowest since September 2024.
Other recent metrics don’t work either for work photography either. The recent unemployment rate among college graduates rose to 5.8% in March, the highest since July 2021, according to data from the New York Federal Reserve System.
Fear of work
Workers are also unhappy with their situation.
Specifically, wage satisfaction has reached its lowest level at 54.8% since November 2021, according to data from the New York Fed in March. At the same time, the average “reserved” wage, or the minimum salary allowed to get a job, fell to $74,236, a slide of nearly 10% since its peak in November 2024.
There are also lingering concerns over federal layoffs as Elon Musk’s government efficiency has significantly reduced the federal workforce since President Donald Trump took over in January. According to Consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, it has announced a total of 281,452 federal layoffs so far.
However, the actual toll can be quite high. Atlanta Fed researcher M. Melinda Pitts estimates it could reach 1.2 million cases, including inclusion of hits related to contractors and grant employees. However, these cuts do not feel completely until the second half of the year when government resignation checks are gone.
In the tentative case, the number of jobs probably indicates that the economy will slow down, but no one will fall off the cliff.
Citigroup predicts 105,000 job growth, which “is not spectacular, but given the slowdown in immigration, it could be a percentage of the employment growth needed to ensure that unemployment rates do not change,” wrote City economist Andrew Hollenhorst.
In addition to the pay number in the heading, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes wage information. This will be monitored closely for signs of slowing inflation. The Wall Street consensus is that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in April, up 3.9% year-on-year or slightly higher than in March.
The report will be released at 8:30am.
