A job seeker speaks with a recruiter behind an event sign during the WorkSource North Seattle Career Fair on Tuesday, February 10, 2026 in Seattle, Washington, USA.
David Ryder Bloomberg | Getty Images
January’s nonfarm employment report beat Wall Street expectations for both job creation and unemployment. Here are the top 5 important points:
From a headline perspective, the news was good. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 people, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. The unemployment rate is thanks to booming household employment of 528,000 people. The Dow Jones consensus was for 55,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. Wages also rose, exceeding expectations by a monthly increase of 0.4% and an annual rate of 3.7%. Working hours, an indicator of productivity, increased by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours. Along with the sunshine, it also rained. According to the annual revision of employment numbers based on census data, employment growth from April 2024 to March 2025 was 898,000 fewer than originally announced. Furthermore, the previous forecast for November was for a decrease of 15,000 people, and a decrease of 2,000 people for December. In the last six months of 2025, the economy lost a net 1,000 jobs. Salary growth was once again concentrated in healthcare-related fields. There were 82,000 jobs in outpatient health services, hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities, and a further 42,000 jobs in social assistance. Only the construction industry showed a noticeable improvement, with an increase of 33,000 jobs. Traders are betting the Federal Reserve will remain on the sidelines through the summer due to strong overall payrolls and a falling unemployment rate. Futures market trading suggests there is only an 8% chance of a March rate cut, and the next rate cut likely won’t happen until at least June, according to CME Group FedWatch indicators.
They said:
“We’re just in! Great job numbers, far more than we expected! The United States should pay less on its debt (bonds). We’re once again the strongest country in the world, so we should pay the lowest interest rates. This will save us at least $1 trillion a year in interest costs – so will the budget on balance, and America’s Golden Age has arrived!!!” — President Donald Trump, in a Truth Social post
“January’s strong jobs report may have been somewhat exaggerated. Construction payrolls surged in response to January’s warmer weather, health care payrolls were well above trend, and retail stabilized. The underlying pace of private payrolls is likely close to 50,000 per month, which is close to recent pace given the temporary strength in these sectors.” — Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley Chief Economist
“January’s strong job growth eased some concerns about a softening labor market and supports the consumption outlook. However, we will need to see more data to determine whether January is a temporary deviation from the overall trend or a reversal of the weakening employment outlook.” — Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings
Correction: The previous forecast for December was 2,000 fewer people. The diagram was misspelled in previous versions.
