For those who rely on certain prescription drugs, such as weight loss, asthma, and cancer drugs, President Donald Trump’s post has announced 100% tariffs on foreign branded drugs.
“From October 1, 2025, we will impose 100% tariffs on branded or patented drugs unless the company is building a drug manufacturing plant in the United States,” Trump said late Thursday. “A “building” is defined as “broken ground” and/or “under construction.” Therefore, there will be no customs duties on these medicines if construction begins. ”
Experts say the Trump Post raises many questions. Here are five main ones.
Which drugs are affected?
Trump’s post does not specify whether a drug maker with a brand with an existing US plant will be exempted, whether the exemption includes all products, or whether only drugs manufactured on US sites.
Wegovy and Zepound weight loss pill manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have announced plans to invest in US manufacturing. However, it is unclear whether the intention to invest justifies the exemption.
On Tuesday, Lily announced plans for a $6.5 billion manufacturing facility in Houston. This will produce Zepbound and other GLP-1 drugs, Mounjaro, following its recent commitment to constructing a $5 billion factory near Richmond, Virginia. Danish company Novo Nordisk said it would spend $4.1 billion in June to build its second GLP-1 fill-finish plant in Clayton, North Carolina.
Astrazeneca, which makes Asthma Drug Symbicort, announced in July that it would invest $50 billion over the next five years to expand its research and development and manufacturing footprint in the US.
However, many other popular branded drugs are mainly manufactured overseas, particularly in Europe, said Rena Conti, an associate professor at the Questrom School of Business at Boston University.
Botox, made by allergens, and keytruda, a cancer drug from drug maker Merck, is made in Ireland. (Keytruda’s manufacturing industry has been moving more and more to the US in recent years, but it is not clear whether it will be exempt from Trump’s tariffs.)
Others, including blood, lung cancer and some for vaccines, are made in places like India and China, Conti said.
“I think the most at risk here are branded products that come from China and India,” she said. The EU and Japan have already signed trade agreements covering medicines, she added, and it is unclear whether the new tariffs will replace them.
Do patients see prices rise?
Only one-tenth of US-filled prescriptions are for branded drugs. The majority are for generics, and these are much cheaper and are not affected by these tariffs.
Dr. Aaron Kesselheim, a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, said whether patients see prices rise depends on the number of people who receive the exemption and whether businesses choose to hand those costs to patients at the pharmacy. になったんです。 English: The first thing you can do is to find the best one to do.
“Ultimately, tariffs are taxes on patients,” Kesselheim said.
Some companies may decide not to pass on costs. So far, the 15% tariff on imports from the EU has not been translated into a major price rise for US patients, Conti said. Certainly, 100% tariffs are much more expensive for the company.
Price increases may not start anytime soon to see if pharmaceutical companies qualify for the exemption. There may also be delays as US laws prevent drug manufacturers from increasing drug prices faster than inflation.
“What if I’m currently updating the factory I have? What if I’m planning a facility? Are they important?” Kesselheim said. “It’s all very vague.”
Some patients may not notice additional price increases, according to Arthur Caplan, head of medical ethics at Nyu Langone Medical Center in New York City.
“We can predict that some patients will soon feel a price increase that will shock some of these medications,” Kaplan said.
Can insurance companies absorb costs?
Insurance companies and intermediaries, known as pharmacy benefits managers, can negotiate drugmakers and try to absorb some of the tariff-related costs, Kaplan said.
But he said they are likely to pass it on to patients in the short term, potentially greater out-of-pocket form.
Private insurance patients aren’t the only ones worried about price increases, Kesselheim said. Those who cover drugs through government health programs can also see prices rise.
“Because governments are the largest buyers of prescription drugs in the market through Medicare, Medicaid and VA, it is the government or government payers who have the biggest impact on price increases,” he said.
Will tariffs promote more US drug production?
That’s not likely, Kesselheim said. The decision to build a plant is “complex and expensive” and requires several regulatory hurdles and years of planning.
Conti noted that by the time the new manufacturing plant is completed, Trump is likely to be in office.
“It will take two to five years to build a new production facility,” she said.
It’s not fast to put money into existing plants.
“If you want to switch lines or retool the factory and manufacture a product, we’re talking to you about doing that in 18-36 months,” Conti said.
In a statement, Alex Schriver, a spokesman for the trade group The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, said, “The most innovative drugs prescribed in the United States are already made in the United States,” and companies continue to invest in the United States.
“Every dollar spent on tariffs is a dollar that cannot be invested in American manufacturing or future treatments or developments of treatments, so there is a risk of these plans,” Schliver said. “Drugs have historically been exempt from tariffs, as they can raise costs and lead to shortages.”
What about the shortage?
If Trump focuses solely on branded drugs, U.S. patients are unlikely to face a shortage, Kesselheim said.
“Their profits are exactly like that, and they’re way beyond this tariff cost, so perhaps they could raise the price of the drug or perhaps rise,” he said. “They probably won’t stop production.”
However, it excludes some small businesses that could potentially manufacture niche branded products, adding that they may not have the resources to acquire additional costs. If tariffs reach generics, the risk is much greater, Kaplan added.
Unlike branded drugs, generic drugs are usually sold close to the cost they are being made, he said. They will likely be forced to leave production or close the plants completely.
