Historically, Bitcoin prices peak around 20 months after Bitcoin is half. Half of the last bitcoin occurred in April 2024. In other words, by December of this year, we were able to see the top of the cycle.
Powell’s Powell in this chair has been cut to 25 bps today, with about $7.4 trillion in funds sitting in the money market being sidelined and there’s a reason to move to hard assets like Bitcoin.
Powell also shows that two more interest rate cuts could be made before this year’s launch. This only further reduces the revenues of money market funds, and could push investors into hard assets like Bitcoin and gold, as well as risky assets like Tech and AI-related stocks.
This could catalyze the final leg of “melting” that rivals what we saw in high-tech stock before the dot-com bubble bursts at the end of 1999.
And I think it sets the stage for the final parabolic leg of the Bull Run, which began in late 2022, just like the likes of Henrik Zerg and David Hunter.
Using traditional financial indexes as the reference point, Zeberg expects the S&P 500 to exceed 7,000 before the year comes out, while Hunter believes it has risen to 8,000 (or more) within the same time frame.
Additionally, according to Macrostritesist Octavio (Tavi) Costa, we may have witnessed a breakdown of the 14-year support levels of the US dollar. That means we have seen a significantly weaker dollar in the coming months.
What will happen in 2026?
Both Zeberg and Hunter believe that as of early next year, they will see the biggest bust in every market we have seen since the collapse of US financial markets in October 1929, promoting the onset of Great Fear Pression.
Zeberg’s rationale for this includes the actual economy of crushing to a halt. This is evidenced by the amount of homes in the market.
Hunter believes we are at the end of a long half-century secular debt fuel fuel cycle that ends with leverage rewinding, unlike what we saw in modern history, as he shared in the story of the coin.
Other signals, such as late payments, indicate the idea that the actual economy is supposed to be shut down. This inevitably affects the financial economy.
Bitcoin recession is not guaranteed, but it could be
Even if we’re not heading towards a global macrobust, as history repeats itself, Bitcoin prices will be a hit in 2026.
So, Bitcoin prices have fallen from $69,000 at the end of 2021 to about $15,500 by the end of 2022, from about $20,000 at the end of 2017 to more than $3,000 at the end of 2018.
In both cases, Bitcoin prices are tapped or below the standard 200-week moving average (SMA) listed on the chart below.
Currently, Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA is around $52,000. If Bitcoin prices rise in the coming months, they could potentially rise by $65,000 before Bitcoin prices fall into such a price range in 2026 or become so low.
Looking at the bust types that Zeberg and Hunter are predicting, Bitcoin prices could also fall far below that threshold.
That being said, no one knows what the future holds and don’t interpret anything in this article as financial advice.
At the same time, remember that history is not necessarily repeated, but often rhymes.
