The only pair of gubernatorial elections year is just two months away, offering one of the biggest tests for both parties since the 2024 presidential contest.
In New Jersey, Democrat Mikier Cheryl and Republican Jack Ciatalelli are trapped in a competitive race defined by the issue of affordability and the popularity of President Donald Trump and Democratic government Phil Murphy.
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has successfully polled the Republican victory Earl Sars on Trump’s massive tax cuts and spending laws, putting economic issues at the forefront of her message. But it appears that Earl Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor, has begun early voting in more than two weeks over the summer.
Both races promise to look into which messages will work and fail ahead of next year’s midterm elections, and whether Democrats can rely on their zeal to oppose Trump.
“I think we’re going to learn if Democrats have the energy they did in 2017. We had big wins in New Jersey and Virginia in 2017, and we had a huge win in 2018.”
The race will also test whether other Republicans can replicate and build Trump’s interests last year.
Mike Duheim, a longtime New Jersey GOP strategist and former Republican National Committee politician, noted that Trump’s popularity cannot be transferred to other Republican candidates during his first term.
“Is that going to change now? We’ll see,” Duheim said.
Garden State Showdown
While New Jersey has traditionally been more democratic than Virginia, some Republicans are confident about opportunities in their yard condition.
“Republicans are probably more optimistic in New Jersey than Virginia,” Duheim said, adding that when Chris Christie won his first governor’s race, it was the party’s “best shot since 2009.”
This is because New Jersey had one of the biggest swings towards Trump in 2024, and Republicans believe voters are keen to change after Murphy’s two terms. And they believe that GOP has a candidate tested in combat in Ciattarelli.
Former state legislator Ciattarelli lost to Murphy with three points in a surprisingly close race four years ago, with the campaign boosting resources this time. The candidate has not submitted a fundraising report since the June primary, but it suggests that both Ciattarelli and Sherrill have received public matching funds of more than $5 million each, raising similar amounts.
Ciattarelli plans to tie four-term MPs to the incumbent governor, showing that she will cast her as “Phil Murphy 2.0” after winning the GOP primary.
“Jack Theatrelli is running with a plan to make New Jersey more affordable and safe for families and seniors and shake up the failed status quo in Trenton,” Theatrelli campaign strategist Chris Russell said in a statement that Cheryl supported former President Joe Biden’s policy and “called the Musson Democrats’ handpicking candidate.
“For voters who want real change in New Jersey, Jack Ciatalelli is their only option,” Russell said.
Sheryl highlighted her background as a naval helicopter pilot, claiming she was a fighter who was happy to defy her party.
Sheryl, who was first elected to the House after turning his longtime Republican seat in 2018, was one of the first members of Congress to call Joe Biden aside as a Democratic presidential candidate after a disastrous debate performance last year.
Cheryl has recently been holding back the surge in electricity bills for Murphy and the state as New Jersey’s high cost of living remains the best issue for voters. She promised to freeze the utility rate for a year, but Murphy doubted it. In an X’s post, Cheryl wrote that she was “tired” by the suspicion and pledged, “I’m going to do it for the NJ family.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to tie Ciattarelli to Trump, who invaded New Jersey last year but still lost 250,000 votes, or 6 percent points.
“Mikier Cheryl takes New Jersey’s most pressing issue and owns the campaign dialogue,” Sheryl Campaign spokesman Sean Higgins said in a statement, pointing to the proposal to combat Cheryl’s massive costs.
“The central difference in this race is that Mikier Cheryl, from Trump to her own party, takes on the birth of anyone in New Jersey, where Jack Theatrelli answers Trump only,” Higgins said.
New Jersey Democratic strategist Julie Loginsky said Trump “opened up the race wide,” saying it would be historically difficult for candidates to take over two terms of incumbent positions with the same party.
“So the question is, who blames voters for affordable prices and the cost of living? Is it Phil Murphy and Democrats, or Donald Trump and Republicans?” Loginsky said.
Democrats are betting that voters will ultimately reject Trump and his policies. This was accepted by Ciattarelli, like Trump’s vast domestic policy law known as the “big, beautiful bill.”
Ciattarelli worked with Trump to gain the President’s support at the GOP Primary, where he cruised towards victory. Although Ciattarelli has broadly supported the Trump agenda, he has recently opposed the administration’s plan to house immigrant detainees at military bases in New Jersey.
Ciattarelli has a tricky balance when it comes to Trump. He needs to unite Republicans and drive out the president’s supporters, but independent voters and some Democrats also win.
On her side, Cheryl is working on the vitality of her party following the divisive June primary in which she defeated five other candidates. Democrats pointed out that the party must prioritize selecting voters of color, including people who supported other major candidates, such as Newark Mayor Las Baraka, who was fighting for being the state’s first black governor.
Democrat strategist Brian added that Sheryl “had spent a lot of time in these communities,” adding that “You have to worry because black voters in New Jersey form the Democratic backbone. Brian also said that Sheryl named Dale Caldwell, a black pastor, her running mate, and that Ciatareli smacked Morris County Sheriff Jim Ganon.
Both Sherrill and Ciattarelli have crossed the state this summer, but they still haven’t spent a lot of money on advertising in the expensive New York City and Philadelphia media markets. But it is expected to change after Labor Day, and is preparing candidates and outside groups to spend millions of dollars on filing lawsuits against voters in the Garden State.
Tightening of the race in Virginia
In Virginia, Republicans say they feel much more optimistic about Earl Sairs odds than they did a few weeks ago.
A few months after facing criticism from Republicans both personally and publicly for running a non-disciplined campaign, Earl Sears began to shake up his team over the summer and focus more on messages highlighting the issue of “common sense.”
She is also leaning even more violently towards linking herself to Governor Glenn Youngkin, a popular and still term-limited Republican. Her latest TV ads, a 30-second spot released last week, feature Youngkin praises his second over his economic and education records.
And earlier this month, polls showed Earl Sears had cut into a significant lead held by former lawmaker Spanberger in a previous survey.
A potential voter, a Roanoke University poll showed Spanberger had a 46% to 39% lead over Earl Sears, with 14% still undecided. Spanberger’s leads are within the range of an error of either positive or negative 4.3 percentage points in the survey.
This is a notable change from the July and May polls, showing Spanberger with a larger lead outside the margin of error.
Early voting in Virginia begins on September 19th, leading some Republicans to believe voters are beginning to pay attention to race for her at the right time.
“The race is changing, there’s zero attention,” said a Republican operative in the state who isn’t involved in the campaign.
However, operatives warned that the race would remain “unquestionably uphill” for Earl Sears.
“It’s still a very difficult place to win,” added the operative, who was given anonymity to provide an honest assessment of the race. “But it’s encouraging to see that finally the momentum on our side has changed a little.”
So far, Democrats have bet primarily on ties with Earl Sears closely with Trump, and the policy they say has had a negative impact on Virginia. These days, it includes Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” and the dramatic changes it is making in Medicaid and Food Assistance Programs.
Spanberger’s campaign recently dubbed Aearle-Sears as “Maga Republicans” and released a new ad that highlights praise for the bill.
The Earl Sears campaign and Republican groups have criticized Spanberger for their lack of clear stance on the issue of trans, especially in youth sports, focusing on messages about the Virginia economy under the Youngkin administration.
However, many important developments in the race have not yet been unfolded. The two will meet on October 9 for the only scheduled discussion at the moment.
And what’s still looming on both campaigns is the question of whether Trump supports Earl Thurs.
Trump last month said “Yes” and offered slippery support to Earl Sears when asked if he would support her. However, he has not yet provided formal approval. A White House spokesman did not answer questions about possible formal approval.
“He’s still the most important supporter in Republican politics. You need to win his coalition,” said Zach Rodey, a Republican strategist based in Virginia. Roday and others said Trump made great strides in Virginia in 2024, cutting the margin of defeat by almost half since 2020.
Spanberger’s campaign and her democratic allies argue that focusing on affordability and safety is a great message.
“Overall, Abigail Spanberger certainly has momentum, but we don’t take anything for granted and the interests are really high,” said Sam Newton, a spokesman for the Democratic Governors’ Association.
Two recent factors have strengthened the trust of many Democrats. According to Adimpact, Spanberger overtook the opponent in a 2-on-1 ad from January 1st to January 1st to Labor Day.
And last month she won approval from the state’s largest police union. That’s because Republicans continue to emphasize crime as a major issue. This is a message highlighted last month by Trump’s decision to send National Guard troops to the nation’s capital.
However, the support of former CIA officer, Virginia State Police Charity Association Spanberger, was particularly noteworthy as he voted for Republican candidates for Republican governor and attorney general this November, supporting Earl Thurs when he ran to lieutenant governor in 2021.
“Abigail has a deep expert level knowledge of the unique challenges facing Virginia law enforcement officials. She is a leader who shares our goal of building trust across the community and working towards a safer, stronger federation,” said Joe Wolosin, president of the group in a statement.
